New article is out with the Foreign Policy Centre: “The Taiwan Trap: Why Beijing Needs Russia’s War in Ukraine.”
7 January 2026
A new article I co-authored with William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, is out.
For four years, China has had the leverage to pressure Moscow toward ending the war. It has chosen not to. Our article explains why this is not a failure of diplomacy, but a deliberate strategic choice.
The core argument is that China benefits strategically from Russia’s continued aggression:
• It keeps the West tied down in Europe, diverting attention, resources, and political capital away from the Indo-Pacific
• It functions as a live test-bed for China’s military, economic, and sanctions-resilience planning ahead of a potential Taiwan contingency
• It accelerates the construction of an alternative global order in which China benefits from Russia absorbing the costs of confrontation with the West
Read it here: https://fpc.org.uk/op-ed-the-taiwan-trap-why-beijing-needs-russias-war-in-ukraine/
New article is out with CEPA: “Maduro’s Fall: A Warning Shot to Europe.”
6 January 2026
A new article I co-authored with William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, is out.
In my new article co-authored with William James Dixon for the Center for European Policy Analysis, we examine what the recent US operation involving Venezuela reveals about how Washington now defines power, credibility, and spheres of interest. The episode sent a clear signal that US military force remains decisive and that American rhetoric should be taken seriously rather than discounted.
For Europe, the implications are uncomfortable. The US is increasingly explicit about prioritising regions it considers central to its core interests, while expecting allies to assume primary responsibility for their own regions. Europe cannot afford to pretend that Washington is still following the same playbook. It is not. That shift has been visible for months, but events in Venezuela make it impossible to ignore.
If Europe wants to shape events, it needs hard power and new forms of cooperation fit for today’s security environment. This is not a moment for delay.
Read it here: https://cepa.org/article/maduros-fall-a-warning-shot-to-europe/
New article is out with Kyiv Post: “A 34-Year-Old Tech Minister Now Runs Ukraine’s War – Here’s Why.”
6 January 2026
A new article I co-authored with William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, is out.
The appointment of Mykhailo Fedorov as Ukraine’s defence minister signals a strategic shift as the war enters its fourth year. Kyiv is betting that technological superiority, speed of execution, and scalable defence production can offset Russia’s numerical advantages in manpower and ammunition.
It reflects a deliberate move to institutionalise what has worked on the battlefield so far. Drone-first warfare, rapid innovation driven by frontline feedback, and digital command, control, and logistics systems are becoming the backbone of Ukraine’s war effort.
Fedorov’s appointment also speaks directly to concerns in Washington and Brussels about accountability, transparency, and long-term absorption capacity, while aligning with Western rearmament cycles.
Read the full article here: https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/67396
New article is out with Kyiv Post: “Why the War Is Likely to Continue in 2026.”
31 December 2025
Recent peace plan discussions have created the impression that the war in Ukraine could soon end. However, irreconcilable differences between Ukraine and Russia, combined with the Kremlin’s continued pursuit of maximalist demands, indicate that negotiations are likely to drag on into 2026 rather than deliver a durable peace.
Read the full article here: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67225
Honoured to join BBC News for a discussion with Ben Brown on the state of Ukraine-US talks and why progress on the peace process has not yet translated into political resolution.
29 December 2025
Here are some of the key topics we discussed and my main takeaways:
1. Progress has been made on aligning around a broad peace framework and the sequencing of further talks, but not on final conditions or implementation details.
2. US President Donald Trump has discussed security guarantees of around 15 years with a possible extension, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has argued for a much longer duration. The focus should remain on credible enforcement mechanisms, including a foreign troop presence in Ukraine.
3. Territorial issues, particularly in the Donbas, remain a significant source of deadlock, with Russia demanding a complete Ukrainian withdrawal, while Ukraine rejects any settlement imposed by force and insists territorial decisions must respect Ukrainian sovereignty, law, and domestic legitimacy.
4. The future status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is another key unresolved issue and raises serious concerns for Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
5. Talks are likely to continue into 2026, as implementation depends on shifts in positions that have not yet materialised.
Link to the full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LW-5dZn00dE
New article is out with Royal United Services Institute (RUSI): “Kremlin’s Response to Peace Proposals Is the Trap We Must Not Fall For”
19 December 2025
A new article I co-authored with my colleague William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, is out.
Our commentary argues that a weakening Russia is not moving toward compromise, but toward escalation. The Kremlin must demonstrate to its domestic audience and to the West that it retains the initiative and remains a great power.
With conventional military options narrowing and economic pressure mounting, the Kremlin is likely to rely more heavily on sabotage, disinformation, and systemic coercive signalling to destabilize Europe and undermine support for Ukraine.
Without clear thresholds, credible hybrid deterrence, and sustained unity, Europe risks enabling a more dangerous phase of Russian escalation rather than containing it.
Read the full article here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russia-losing-time-putins-2026-hybrid-escalation
New article is out with Visegrad Insight: “Kremlin’s Response to Peace Proposals Is the Trap We Must Not Fall For”
16 December 2025
A new article I co-authored with William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, is out.
Russia is using renewed peace talks not to end the war, but to divide the West, slow military and financial support for Ukraine, and buy time to prepare a new offensive in 2026.
The Kremlin is following a well-established playbook, echoing the Istanbul talks. It uses peace talks as diplomatic theatre while intensifying military pressure on the ground, actively circumventing sanctions, and applying political pressure to test and fragment Western unity. The aim is to buy time, shift blame onto Ukraine if talks fail, and advance Russian demands without making meaningful concessions.
Without clearly defined red lines, enforceable security guarantees for Ukraine, and sustained Western coordination, diplomacy risks serving as cover for renewed Russian escalation rather than a path to resolution.
Read the full article here: https://visegradinsight.eu/peace-plan-for-ukraine-by-russia-is-a-trap/
New article is out with the Center for European Policy Analysis: “2026 – Europe’s Year of Living Dangerously.”
11 December 2025
A new article I co-authored with William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, is out.
Russia is preparing to intensify its shadow war on Europe in 2026. The Kremlin wants to show it still holds strategic initiative, combining diplomatic posturing with escalating hybrid pressure across the continent.
Russia’s strategy will expand across three arenas: sabotage of defense production and Ukraine-bound supply chains, subversion during key European elections, and coercive military provocations including drone incursions near runways that threaten civilian aircraft and passengers, including political leaders.
These actions exploit Europe’s slow progress in defining thresholds for hybrid attacks. Sabotage, cyber interference and disinformation are still often treated as isolated crimes, and political fragmentation and early-stage rearmament leave Europe exposed entering 2026.
Without credible deterrence, the Kremlin will continue to escalate. Europe needs clarity on what it will not tolerate and how systematic hybrid attacks and airspace violations will be met.
Read it here: https://cepa.org/article/2026-europes-year-of-living-dangerously/
New article is out with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies: “A New Axis of Disinformation: What Europe Must Do Now”
9 December 2025
A new article I co-authored with William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, is out.
Over the past decade, and especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing have moved from loose coordination to a structured information partnership. This now includes cyber operations, AI-enabled influence campaigns, space-based intelligence support, and aligned narratives across major digital platforms.
China increasingly enables Russia’s hybrid war against Europe. It provides dual-use technologies, supports cyber espionage, amplifies pro-Kremlin narratives through TikTok and Weibo, and enhances Russian battlefield targeting through satellite data. These efforts exploit social divisions, weaken public support for Ukraine, and interfere with elections across the EU.
This is no longer traditional propaganda but a strategic, integrated hybrid threat, accelerated by algorithms and coordinated across multiple domains. Europe now needs a unified response that includes stronger sanctions, tighter export controls, cognitive resilience measures, and coordinated EU-NATO red lines in the information space.
Read it here: https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/a-new-axis-of-disinformation-what-europe-must-do-now-225219
New article is out with the Jamestown Foundation: “Russia Builds a Coercive State Apparatus in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories.”
3 December 2025
Since 2022, the Kremlin has been replicating its entire federal governance system across Ukraine’s occupied regions. Courts, prosecutors, FSB and Rosgvardiya units, tax and migration services, property registries, and social funds have all been introduced to enforce Russian law and tighten political control.
My analysis shows how this has evolved into a comprehensive system of coercive governance. Despite the Kremlin’s expanding infrastructure, the occupation system faces significant shortages in healthcare and education staff, along with continuous water and power outages.
The Kremlin’s ultimate objective is to deepen residents’ dependence on Russian institutions, legitimize wide-ranging property seizures, and make future reintegration with Ukraine nearly impossible.
Read it here: https://jamestown.org/russia-builds-coercive-state-apparatus-in-ukraines-occupied-territories/
New article is out with the Atlantic Council: “On How the Axis of Authoritarians Poses a Mounting Threat on the Global Information Front.”
20 November 2025
A new article I co-authored with William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI is out.
Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has expanded its information operations across Europe and beyond. The Kremlin continues to invest heavily in influence campaigns, disinformation and AI-generated content designed to destabilize its opponents and undermine democratic societies. China is increasingly aligned with this approach, developing tools of its own and coordinating closely with Moscow in the information sphere.
This cooperation is becoming more visible and coordinated. Russian and Chinese state narratives reinforce each other across TikTok, Weibo and joint media initiatives. Both regimes amplify messages portraying the war in Ukraine as a defensive reaction to Western policies, while exploiting social divisions and boosting anti-establishment and far-right forces across Europe.
Information warfare is no longer a secondary issue but a tier-one national security threat. As authoritarian regimes deepen their cooperation, Western governments will need a more systematic response that includes exposing hostile information operations, setting diplomatic and legal red lines and drawing on Ukraine’s wartime experience in defending the information space.
New article is out with the Jamestown Foundation: “Kremlin Builds Patronage Economy in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories.”
11 November 2025
The Kremlin has turned reconstruction in the occupied territories into a vast patronage system designed to enrich federal elites and loyal local governors while consolidating political control. Billions of rubles flow through opaque contracts, inflated budgets, and “patron-region” partnerships, where Russian state corporations like Rostec profit from seized Ukrainian assets and privileged access to subsidies.
My analysis examines how Moscow’s so-called “reconstruction” has evolved into a tool of elite enrichment and dependency, with real authority concentrated in the hands of Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin and Kremlin-appointed curators. Despite public ceremonies and propaganda about reconstruction, progress on the ground remains slow, symbolic, and deeply corrupt.
By transforming reconstruction into a mechanism of dependency and elite enrichment, the Kremlin is embedding occupied territories within Russia’s fiscal and administrative system at the expense of the territories themselves.
Read the article here: https://jamestown.org/kremlin-builds-patronage-economy-in-ukraines-occupied-territories/
New article is out with Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “China Is the Weak Link in Europe’s Ukraine Strategy.”
11 November 2025
Beijing has become a silent partner in the Kremlin’s hybrid war, supplying dual-use components for drones and missiles, facilitating sanctions evasion, and amplifying Russian disinformation and cyber operations. This cooperation fuses economic, technological, and informational tools to undermine Europe’s resilience from within.
The EU must treat China’s role as part of the same hybrid threat architecture driving Moscow’s aggression, closing loopholes, tightening sanctions, and building joint transatlantic and Indo-Pacific responses.
New article is out with GLOBSEC: “Strategic Autonomy Starts in Ukraine: The EU Must Move Faster on Critical Raw Materials.”
18 October 2025
The EU cannot achieve strategic autonomy and meet its Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) goals without fully leveraging Ukraine’s potential. Following the recent US-Ukraine minerals deal, Brussels must act quickly to protect its strategic and economic interests.
The piece argues that cooperation with Ukraine should reinforce its EU accession trajectory, embedding regulatory alignment, sustainability, and transparency into all joint projects. Europe must move from strategy to delivery to secure vital resources for its defence, energy, and technology industries.
Read the article here: https://www.globsec.org/what-we-do/commentaries/strategic-autonomy-starts-ukraine-eu-must-move-faster-critical-raw
New article is out with Kyiv Post: “Russia’s War on Ukraine Enters a New Grim Phase.”
18 October 2025
The Kremlin is once again weaponizing winter, shifting from energy terror to a full-scale assault on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.
Russia is systematically targeting power plants, hospitals, schools, and rail hubs to paralyze Ukraine’s economy and exhaust public morale. In just two weeks, strikes on Naftogaz facilities in Ukraine disabled nearly 60% of Ukraine’s gas production, the largest such attack since the war began.
These assaults are part of a broader campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy and transportation systems, block grain, iron, and steel exports that sustain the economy during wartime, and wear down repair crews to delay the recovery of damaged energy assets and stretch Ukraine’s emergency capacity beyond its limits.
Ukraine enters this winter with a greater capacity and stronger coordination with the EU than it did in 2022. Yet the challenge has shifted from surviving attacks to sustaining resilience. The key question is whether Ukraine can repair itself faster than Russia can destroy it.
Read the article here: https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/62302
New article on the Kremlin’s Drone Surge in 2025 and its Hybrid Threat to Ukraine and Europe is out at New Eastern Europe.
16 October 2025
Recent drone incursions in Europe show that the Kremlin is expanding its drone warfare beyond Ukraine, turning it into a strategic hybrid tool that tests NATO’s resilience and Europe’s ability to respond. What once served as a battlefield weapon has evolved into a long-term coercion strategy targeting both military and civilian domains.
In this piece, I examine how Russia is ramping up drone production, introducing AI-enabled and swarm-capable systems, combining drone warfare with sabotage, GPS jamming and disinformation to pressure Europe’s eastern flank, and exploiting foreign and forced labour to sustain its wartime production model.
The objective is not sudden escalation but a gradual erosion of deterrence and resilience, extending hybrid warfare deep into Europe’s security landscape. Unless Ukraine and its partners accelerate counter-drone innovation and defence-industrial cooperation, Europe risks facing the same saturation tactics already seen in Ukraine’s skies.
You can read the article here: https://neweasterneurope.eu/2025/10/16/kremlins-drone-surge-in-2025-and-its-hybrid-threat-to-ukraine-and-europe/
Russia Intensifies Strikes on Ukraine’s Rail Network.
9 October 2025
Since mid-September, Russia has increasingly targeted Ukraine’s railway infrastructure to disrupt military logistics and civilian transport. Strikes on locomotives, depots, power substations, and junctions across northern and central Ukraine, including the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions, have forced rerouting of trains and temporary suspension of several lines.
Ukrzaliznytsia continues to adapt by deploying reserve diesel locomotives and rerouting passenger and freight trains through alternate corridors. Despite repeated attacks, repair crews restore service within hours, showing the resilience of Ukraine’s rail system, one of the country’s vital lifelines.
Ukraine’s railways move not only troops and military cargo but also grain, metals, and iron ore to western borders and southern ports. These are strategic exports that help sustain the country’s economy in wartime. Maintaining such a vast network of over 22,000 kilometers of rail, nearly half of it electrified, is already a major logistical challenge. Russia knows this and strikes deliberately to exploit that vulnerability, aiming to stretch Ukraine’s repair and energy capacities. By doing so, the Kremlin also aims to exhaust Ukraine’s resilience and erode civilian morale.
Strengthening rail protection, counter-drone defenses, and rapid-repair capacity must remain strategic priorities for both Ukraine and its partners.
EU Moves to Restrict Russian Diplomats’ Travel Amid Escalating Espionage Threats.
8 October 2025
As Europe continues to uncover GRU sabotage networks in Poland, Lithuania, and Germany, the EU is taking its next step by drafting new rules to restrict the movement of Russian diplomats across member states.
According to assessments by EU and national intelligence services cited by the Financial Times and EUobserver, Russian diplomatic cover operations have been linked to arson, cyberattacks, and sabotage across Europe. Under the proposed measures, Russian diplomats will be required to notify EU authorities in advance of their travel routes, vehicles, and border crossings. This step aims to close long-exploited gaps in Europe’s counterintelligence system.
The initiative, driven by the Czech Republic, reflects growing recognition that Russia’s hybrid war is no longer confined to the battlefield but is being waged inside the EU through covert operations, disinformation, and sabotage.
Tightening these rules represents a long-overdue shift from reactive sanctions to proactive defense and could contribute to helping to combat the rise in Russian hybrid warfare operations across Europe.
Hybrid War Escalates: Russian Sabotage Network Uncovered in Poland, Lithuania, and Germany.
8 October 2025
In one of my previous posts, I wrote about an earlier investigation into parcel bombs sent from Moscow’s “Aquarium” GRU unit that targeted DHL hubs in Leipzig, Birmingham, and near Warsaw, as well as the attempted arson at an Ikea store in Vilnius. Those incidents already revealed a systematic campaign of sabotage and psychological warfare across Europe.
Last week, Polish authorities uncovered a GRU sabotage network spanning Poland, Lithuania, and Germany, marking another escalation in Russia’s hybrid operations inside the EU. Investigators from the National Prosecutor’s Office and the Internal Security Agency detained Władysław G., a courier linked to the GRU, accused of transporting drone components, SIM cards, and explosives disguised as canned sweetcorn. Each can reportedly contain up to 2.8 kilograms of TNT intended for coordinated attacks on critical infrastructure.
Identical “sweetcorn” cans were also found in Lithuania, while traces of the same network extend to Germany. Poland’s security coordinator, Tomasz Siemoniak, confirmed arrests of individuals connected to Russian intelligence and warned that Moscow intended to shift blame onto Ukraine for any resulting attacks.
Taken together, these actions demonstrate a deliberate strategy to test NATO and EU resilience through state-backed sabotage, disinformation, and technological disruption. The West should no longer view such events as isolated incidents, but rather recognize them as part of a coherent, hybrid campaign aimed at destabilizing the entire continent.
Russia’s summer offensive slowed in September, but the toll on civilians remained devastating, with increased strikes and large-scale evacuations.
8 October 2025
1. Russian advance slows: Russian forces captured 259 km² of Ukrainian territory in September, a 44% decline compared to August and the smallest monthly gain since May. Russia now occupies around 19.04% of Ukraine’s territory. The fiercest battles continue near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka in the Donetsk region, as well as around Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian forces have retaken several villages west of Pokrovsk, reinforcing defenses along the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk axis.
2. Drone and missile attacks surge: Russia launched 5,636 drones and 187 missiles in September, a 38% spike compared to August. On 6-7 September, Moscow carried out the largest air assault of the war, firing 810 drones and 13 missiles in one night. Other significant strikes followed on 19-20 and 27-28 September, each involving a combined total of more than 600 drones and missiles. New Geran and Shahed models, including jet-powered and thermal-imaging-equipped variants, improved the Kremlin’s strike precision in Ukraine.
3. Civilian casualties rise sharply: According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, short-range drone strikes caused the highest number of casualties in August, killing 58 civilians and injuring 272, mainly in Donetsk and Kherson regions. The 6-7 September attack killed five and wounded 41 across six regions and Kyiv. Civilian casualties in the first eight months of 2025 were 40% higher than in 2024, with deaths up 17% and injuries up 46%. Since February 2022, at least 14,116 civilians have been killed and 36,481 injured.
4. Evacuations reach record levels: Between June and early October, over 105,000 civilians were evacuated from frontline regions, including 12,000 children and 3,500 people with limited mobility. The largest evacuations occurred from Donetsk (76,000) and Dnipropetrovsk (18,500) regions. Despite these efforts, approximately 1 million civilians still need evacuation from high-risk areas.
The Kremlin’s advance has slowed on land but intensified in the air. Its military terror campaign continues to target Ukraine’s resilience, aiming to exhaust defenses and strain civilian endurance ahead of winter.
Honoured to join Mark Austin on Sky News News Hour earlier this week to discuss the growing drone threat and Europe’s preparedness.
6 October 2025
Here are some of the key topics we discussed and my main takeaways:
1. Hybrid warfare: Russia has been waging an intensifying hybrid war against Europe through sabotage, disinformation, cyberattacks, and drone incursions. In 2024, these attacks quadrupled vs 2023, and in 2025, they have continued to rise, with recent incidents involving Russian drones and planes violating NATO’s airspace.
2. The Kremlin’s focus on drones: Moscow aims to produce up to 4 million drones this year and train 1.5 million operators within the next 5 years, while actively investing in innovation and production facilities such as the Alabuga plant.
3. Cost asymmetry: One cheap drone can force the use of interceptor missiles worth millions. This imbalance is what the Kremlin exploits. The EU’s “drone wall” proposal for a defense network from Finland to Bulgaria is a positive step, but it must be properly implemented and coordinated with NATO to be effective.
4. Ukraine’s expertise: Ukraine has become the testing ground for counter-drone defense, and this week sent experts to Denmark to share battlefield innovations. NATO still has gaps in counter-drone defense and hybrid response, and integrating Ukraine’s experience will be essential to closing them.
5. Lavrov’s denials: Recent Russian statements dismissing aggression cannot be trusted. Similar assurances were made before the 2022 full-scale invasion.
Link to the full interview is here
Key Lessons from Warsaw Security Forum 2025: Scaling Defense, Countering Hybrid War, Supporting Ukraine.
3 October 2025
It was a great pleasure to attend the Warsaw Security Forum 2025 organized by the Casimir Pulaski Foundation.
Key takeaways from the sessions I attended:
1. Russia’s Hybrid War
• The Kremlin has intensified its hybrid activities across Europe to probe defenses and undermine democracies.
• Cognitive warfare is central. Deepfakes, covert financing, and targeted narratives are used to destabilize societies across Europe.
• Fear itself is the Kremlin’s greatest weapon. Russia counts on Western hesitation and self-deterrence.
• Illusions of normalization are dangerous. Putin never faced real elections, and Western naivety after 2000 and Crimea’s annexation only encouraged his aggression.
2. How Russia Funds the War
• Oil exports still bring Moscow $200-300 billion annually. Until that lifeline is cut, sanctions remain incomplete.
• Frozen Russian assets should be unlocked to finance Ukraine now, with legal clarity but without hesitation.
• Putin’s system survives on war. Raising the cost means tougher sanctions, dismantling shadow fleets, and binding security guarantees for Ukraine.
3. Ukraine’s Role in Europe’s Security
• Ukraine is Europe’s shield. Its 15–20 day innovation cycles in drones and electronic warfare are shaping the future of defense.
• The EU’s planned “drone wall” needs Ukraine’s battlefield expertise, from acoustic sensors to interceptor drones.
• NATO membership for Ukraine is not symbolic but existential. EU accession is a security benefit, not a concession.
• The war has global consequences. China is a key enabler of Russia’s defense industry, and the outcome in Ukraine will shape the Indo-Pacific balance and the rules-based order.
• The human cost cannot be ignored: at least 20,000 children abducted by Russia, only 1,600 returned so far.
4. Europe’s Defense and Resilience
• Hesitation costs lives. Delays in weapons, sanctions, and industrial capacity gave Russia room to escalate.
• Resilience is not only military. Civilian infrastructure, societal awareness, and education against disinformation are vital parts of defense.
• Europe’s defense industry must scale. Ammunition, artillery, and air defense require joint production and co-production with Ukraine.
• Energy is security. Europe cannot swap dependence on Russian gas for dependence on Chinese minerals.
• Europe must mobilize faster, and closing critical ammunition gaps is now urgent.
• Conscription debates are back. In countries like Germany and the Netherlands, youth acceptance is rising, but training and equipment still lag behind.
The Warsaw Security Forum 2025 showed that Europe’s defense must scale, and that Europe should work more closely with Ukraine, which brings experience and stands as a shield against Russia.
I am pleased to share my follow-up article, published by The Jamestown Foundation: “Kremlin Expands Youth Indoctrination in Russia and Occupied Territories of Ukraine (Part Two).”
29 September 2025
This second part explores how the Kremlin relies on youth organizations and camps, including Yunarmia, Avangard, and the Movement of the First, to militarize children and enforce ideological conformity. These groups now count millions of members, with training that ranges from parades and weapons handling to trench-digging and drone operations.
In occupied Ukrainian territories, indoctrination is imposed by force. Ukrainian language and textbooks are banned, “special military operation” museums are opened in schools, and thousands of children are sent to Russian-run camps where identity erasure and military preparation go hand in hand.
Together, these initiatives show how the Kremlin has built a unified indoctrination infrastructure that merges education, culture, religion, and paramilitary training, with dangerous long-term consequences for both Ukraine and European security.
Read here: https://jamestown.org/program/kremlin-expands-youth-indoctrination-in-russia-and-occupied-territories-of-ukraine-part-two/
My latest article, published by The Jamestown Foundation: “Kremlin Expands Youth Indoctrination in Russia and Occupied Territories of Ukraine.”
24 September 2025
The Kremlin has transformed patriotic education into a central pillar of governance, investing billions of rubles to militarize youth and enforce ideological loyalty. In 2025 alone, Moscow allocated 66 billion rubles ($787 million) to schools, textbooks, camps, museums, and festivals across Russia and the territories it occupies.
These programs go beyond propaganda. They include mandatory subjects such as Spiritual and Moral Culture of Russia, weekly “Conversations About Important Things” classes, and military training for high school students. Shockingly, indoctrination is now being extended to kindergartens, with children as young as three exposed to militarized narratives in both Russia and occupied regions of Ukraine.
My article examines how this system combines education, religion, culture, and coercion into a machinery of indoctrination designed to sustain both Putin’s war against Ukraine and authoritarian control at home.
Read here: https://jamestown.org/program/kremlin-expands-youth-indoctrination-in-russia-and-occupied-territories-of-ukraine-part-one/
My new article with the Atlantic Council is out: “Putin is escalating Russia’s hybrid war against Europe. Is Europe ready?”
23 September 2025
From Zapad-2025 drills, which included a simulated nuclear strike and the use of drones, to suspicious drone activity that forced airports in Denmark and Norway to suspend operations, the Kremlin is testing NATO’s readiness and probing Europe’s vulnerabilities. These incidents add to a broader pattern of provocations across the eastern flank, including drone and fighter jet incursions into Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace.
This is not new. Since 2014, Russia has refined its hybrid playbook, from cyberattacks and sabotage to disinformation and assassinations. What we are seeing now is a dangerous escalation, with drones and hybrid disruption having become strategic weapons, designed not only to intimidate but to fracture transatlantic unity.
Europe cannot afford hesitation. Countering Russia’s hybrid war requires urgent investment in anti-drone defenses, a more structured and coordinated response to drone and airspace incursions, and drawing on Ukraine’s unique battlefield experience.
Read the full article here: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-escalating-russias-hybrid-war-against-europe-is-europe-ready/
My new article is out with Kyiv Post: “Moscow Prepares a Winter of Energy Terror Against Ukraine.”
20 September 2025
Unable to break through the front lines, the Kremlin is weaponizing winter once again. Its campaign is set to combine mass drone swarms with strikes on thermal plants, gas facilities, and distribution networks, aiming to degrade Ukraine’s energy resilience and strain public morale.
There have been nearly 3,000 attacks on energy infrastructure since March, a dramatic escalation compared to previous years. Russia has already produced 34,000 strike drones and decoys this year, almost nine times more than in 2024. We could expect an increasing number of drone swarms designed to exhaust air defenses and overwhelm repair crews this winter.
As a result, intensified Russian drone attacks, combined with energy equipment scarcity, could lead to power outages of 12-20 hours daily, and even longer in cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa.
The Kremlin’s goal is to exhaust Ukraine’s energy resilience, destabilize society, and undermine European solidarity.
That means Ukraine and its partners must:
1. Accelerate layered air defense and counter-drone systems.
2. Secure and expand spare part reserves for energy equipment.
3. Protect vulnerable communities and critical services against long-term outages.
The outcome will depend less on the occurrence of blackouts than on Ukraine’s ability to sustain public morale, protect vulnerable communities, and demonstrate that energy coercion cannot yield political concessions. Ukraine needs quicker strengthening of its energy infrastructure ahead of the cold season, as this upcoming winter will be a test of Ukraine’s resilience and European solidarity.
Read the full article: https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/60386
State-Backed Sabotage Exposed in Russia’s Hybrid War Against Europe
15 September 2025
A new investigation in Lithuania has exposed how Russian military intelligence coordinated sabotage operations across Europe in 2024. Parcel bombs disguised as electronic massagers ignited at DHL hubs in Leipzig and Birmingham and near Warsaw in Poland. The same network also attempted to burn down an Ikea store in Vilnius, causing nearly half a million euros in damage.
The investigation shows that recruits were drawn from Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and Russia, often found through Telegram and paid in cryptocurrency. Coordination came from Moscow’s GRU unit known as the “Aquarium.” At the same time, personal ties dating back to the Soviet submarine fleet were used to draw in individuals in Riga, showing how Moscow combines both anonymous digital recruitment and long-standing personal networks.
These incidents fit into a broader pattern of escalation. In the last two weeks, Europe has already faced GPS jamming of the European Commission President’s plane in Bulgaria and Russian drones entering Polish airspace ahead of Zapad-2025 and Romanian airspace during it. Lithuanian prosecutors have suggested the parcel operation was also a test run for targeting transatlantic cargo routes to North America.
Taken together, these actions demonstrate a deliberate strategy to test NATO and EU resilience through military pressure, technological disruption, and state-backed sabotage. Europe should no longer view such events as isolated incidents but recognize them as part of a coherent hybrid campaign aimed at destabilizing the whole continent.
Zapad-2025 Concludes with Warning Signs of Potential Escalation
12 September 2025
On 16 September, Russia and Belarus concluded Zapad-2025, officially described as defensive and limited. Some outlets even repeated claims that the exercise was scaled down and moved inland to reduce tensions.
However, Zapad-2025 demonstrated very different intentions. According to TASS and Belarusian officials, it mobilized 100,000 troops and 10,000 pieces of equipment, including over 3,500 weapons systems, more than 100 aircraft, and over 80 ships and support vessels. It also included planning for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, the deployment of the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, and drills with Iskander-M launchers in Kaliningrad. NATO observers, including representatives from the United States, Turkey, and Hungary, were present, showing that Moscow wanted the scale and signaling of Zapad-2025 to be seen directly even while insisting the drills were defensive. Zapad-2025 was even joined by contingents from India, Iran, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali, in an attempt to present the drills as an international coalition rather than a bilateral exercise.
Zapad has a long history of nuclear signaling and escalation. In 2009, it simulated a nuclear strike on Warsaw. In 2021, maneuvers directly preceded the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, nuclear elements returned, this time combined with hybrid provocations such as drone incursions into NATO airspace and GPS jamming over EU flights in the days leading up to it.
Far from being “scaled down,” Zapad-2025 confirms what I wrote in August: these exercises are rehearsals for confrontation, merging conventional escalation, nuclear planning, and hybrid pressure under the guise of “defense.”
Civilian Toll in Ukraine Rises as Russia Expands Drone War
9 September 2025
According to the latest UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission update for August, released on 10 September, at least 208 civilians were killed and 827 injured. While this is 41 percent lower than in July, it reflects only a temporary pause in long-range strikes.
Key findings show that 72 percent of casualties occurred near the frontline, mainly in Donetska and Khersonska oblasts. Short-range drones caused the most casualties, killing 58 and injuring 272. Long-range weapons, including missiles and loitering munitions, were the second leading cause, with large-scale strikes on Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. At least nine documented strikes hit gas facilities and other energy infrastructure, underlining the risks as winter approaches.
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy, nearly 3,000 attacks on energy infrastructure have been recorded since March. This represents a dramatic escalation since February 2022 and highlights the Kremlin’s broader hybrid campaign against Ukrainian resilience and civilian morale.
As of the middle of September, Russia has already produced more than 34,000 strike unmanned aerial vehicles and decoys, nearly nine times more than in the same period of 2024. Overall, the Kremlin aims to increase total drone production to around 4 million drones in 2025. This industrial expansion underlines why drone warfare has become the leading cause of civilian harm.
Drone warfare today is not only about destroying infrastructure. It is designed to break resilience, spread fear, and test Ukraine’s ability to endure. With winter approaching, the scale of these attacks is likely to intensify.
Russian Provocation Against Poland: A Preview of Zapad 2025?
5 September 2025
Early this morning, Poland’s Armed Forces confirmed that Russian Shahed-type drones violated Polish airspace. Several were intercepted, airports in Warsaw and other cities were closed for hours, and allied air defenses were activated. Warsaw called it an act of aggression and a real threat to the security of its citizens.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk convened an emergency government meeting earlier this morning. According to Poland’s military, the violation was unprecedented in scale. NATO aircraft joined the response for the first time since the full-scale invasion, underscoring the seriousness of the incident.
This is not just a spillover from Russia’s war on Ukraine. President Zelensky noted that Moscow always tests the limits of what is possible. Today’s incursion is a deliberate probe of NATO readiness on the eve of Zapad 2025 (12 to 16 September), the largest Russian-Belarusian drills since 2021.
As I argued in my August CEPA piece (link below), Zapad is not a defensive exercise. It rehearses blockades and potential invasions of NATO’s Eastern Flank, while hybrid pressure such as sabotage, cyberattacks, and drone incursions escalates across Europe. Poland has announced the closure of its border with Belarus, and Lithuania is reinforcing its defenses.
1. Pattern of escalation: Zapad 2021 was followed by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
2. Hybrid pressure: GPS jamming, sabotage plots, and now drone incursions target Poland and the Baltics.
3. Strategic message: Moscow wants NATO to feel the costs of defending its frontline states.
Poland’s decisive response shows resilience, but the message is clear. The Kremlin is probing NATO before Zapad 2025. The Alliance must treat these provocations not as isolated events, but as part of Russia’s broader rehearsal for confrontation.
My latest article, published by the The Jamestown Foundation: “Kremlin Works to Erase Ukrainian Identity and Militarize Occupied Regions”.
3 September 2025
I am pleased to share my latest article, just published by the The Jamestown Foundation: “Kremlin Works to Erase Ukrainian Identity and Militarize Occupied Regions.”
The Kremlin is intensifying efforts to erase Ukrainian identity in the territories it occupies by banning the Ukrainian language in schools, rewriting history, and restricting access to independent media. At the same time, it is coercing residents into taking Russian passports by tying them to healthcare, communications, and basic services.
Most alarming, these policies now feed directly into Russia’s war machine through forced conscription, raids on young men, and the militarization of abducted children as they reach adulthood. This is demographic warfare by design.
My article examines how these measures combine into a broader strategy of coercion, identity erasure, and militarization, and why they must be treated as a central part of Russia’s long-term occupation policy.
Grateful to the The Jamestown Foundation for publishing the piece.
Read here: https://jamestown.org/program/kremlin-works-to-erase-ukrainian-identity-and-militarize-occupied-regions/
Russia’s summer offensive slowed in August, but the toll on civilians remained devastating
3 September 2025
1. Slower Russian advance: Russian forces captured 464 km² of Ukrainian territory in August, an 18% decline compared to June and July. Russia now controls around 19% of Ukraine’s territory, a share last recorded in October 2022 before the Kremlin lost its bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro in Khersonska oblast. Data shows that Russia’s fastest gains remain along the axis toward Dnipropetrovska oblast.
2. Drone intensity dips but remains deadly: Russia launched 4,132 long-range drones in August, a 34% decrease from July’s record. Despite the slowdown, attacks killed dozens of civilians. The end of August was particularly brutal. In a single night (27-28 August), Russia launched 598 drones and 31 missiles, killing 23 people in Kyiv, including four children, and injuring 64. Russia also launched 156 missiles in August, compounding damage to infrastructure and further straining civilian resilience.
3. Civilian casualties reach a three-year high: According to the UN, July recorded 286 civilians killed and 1,388 injured, the highest toll since May 2022. Strikes were verified in 18 regions, with long-range weapons accounting for nearly 40% of casualties. Civilian casualties in the first seven months of 2025 were 48% higher than in the same period of 2024. On 31 July, a missile and loitering munitions strike on Kyiv killed 31 people and injured 171, the city’s deadliest attack since the start of the invasion.
4. Civilian evacuations intensify: Between June and August, over 52,500 people were evacuated from Donetska and Dnipropetrovska oblasts, though more than 249,000 still need evacuation, including 18,000 children. In Sumska oblast, around 60,000 people (63%) have left dangerous frontline areas since the start of organized evacuations, including over 8,000 children (92%). In Zaporizka oblast, evacuations increased in July, with over 1,200 people leaving frontline areas, nearly twice the average monthly level seen earlier this year.
The Kremlin’s offensive advances unevenly, but its strategy of civilian terror and destabilisation remains unchanged.
My new article with the Atlantic Council is out: “Putin’s hybrid war against Europe continues to escalate.”
25 August 2025
My new article with the Atlantic Council is out: “Putin’s hybrid war against Europe continues to escalate.”
Russia is actively waging sabotage, cyber attacks, arson, and undersea disruptions across the EU, a campaign refined since 2014 and now entering a far more dangerous phase. Europe’s response remains fragmented, leaving it vulnerable to the Kremlin’s escalating hybrid warfare techniques.
These are not random acts but part of a broader Kremlin strategy. Countering them requires a more coordinated, agile, and collective response.
Read the full article here: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-hybrid-war-against-europe-continues-to-escalate/
My new article is out with Kyiv Post “The Kremlin’s Drone War Has Gone Strategic: Ukraine Must Brace Itself for an Onslaught.”
5 August 2025
What began as sporadic drone attacks has evolved into an industrial, state-coordinated campaign. It is backed by foreign supply chains, dedicated funding, and long-term planning.
In July alone, Russia launched an average of 209 drones per day. Intelligence now warns of potential saturation attacks involving up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November. The goal is clear: to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses, exhaust infrastructure, and erode national resilience.
In this article, I outline some of the latest developments behind this shift:
1. $132 million invested in drone innovation, VAT exemptions, and over 250 firms mobilized under Russia’s Centre for Unmanned Systems
2. Belarus is reviving production lines, with plans to produce up to 100,000 drones per year
3. China is supplying entire drone assemblies, including engines disguised as “refrigeration units” for long-range strike platforms
4. Russia is deploying advanced variants: semi-autonomous FPVs, decoys, and loitering munitions
It is a strategic transformation and a test of how quickly Ukraine and its partners can adapt.
That means:
1. Scaling counter-drone production and deployment
2. Hardening civil infrastructure and early warning systems
3. Disrupting drone supply chains and logistics across borders
Delays now will be paid in lives, infrastructure, and long-term vulnerability.
The Kremlin demonstrates its readiness for a more confrontational stance toward Europe and NATO
5 August 2025
1. Missile deployment to Belarus. On 1 August, President Putin confirmed that Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missiles will be deployed to Belarus by the end of 2025. These weapons are reportedly capable of striking Poland in 11 minutes and Brussels in 17 minutes. While their actual capabilities remain disputed, Russian state media describe the system as “immune to interception” and powerful enough for non-nuclear strikes with nuclear-like effect. Putin stated: “We have produced the first serial Oreshnik system, and the first missile has entered service. Full-scale production has now begun.” Russian sources officially describe Oreshnik as a new intermediate-range ballistic missile with hypersonic payloads.
2. Zapad-2025 preparations intensify. Earlier in July, Belarusian officials announced that the joint drills would move closer to NATO’s borders, near Poland and Lithuania. The Zapad-2025 exercise, expected to involve between 100,000 and 150,000 troops, may again blur the line between deterrence and rehearsal for actual conflict. During Zapad-2021, simulated strikes on NATO positions were followed just months later by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
3. Force posture shift. Over the past several years, Russia has expanded military infrastructure along the borders with Finland, Estonia, and Norway. A new base is being built near the Finnish border following Finland’s accession to NATO. These forward-positioned assets are not intended for use in Ukraine but are held in reserve to pressure NATO directly.
4. Hybrid escalation. Cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns have surged across Europe, especially along NATO’s eastern flank. These activities often peak during major Russian drills, indicating a coordinated hybrid strategy alongside conventional military movements.
NATO and EU leaders must treat it not as posturing, but as a strategic signal in Russia’s long-term strategy to reshape the balance of power in Europe.
Russia’s summer offensive is entering its active phase, with the Kremlin’s advances intensifying, drone warfare escalating, and evacuations surging
3 August 2025
1. Frontline shifts: Russia captured 564 km² in July, part of a three-month trend totaling 1,569 km². This marks the sharpest territorial decline since early 2025, and the second-largest monthly loss since January 2024, with only November 2024 recording a higher figure (730 km²). Russian forces advanced in four oblasts, including near Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Donetska oblast now nearly encircled. If it falls, the Kremlin may gain a path toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, two cities critical for declaring full control over Donbas.
2. Drone warfare: Russia launched a record 6,297 drones in July, a 1,378 percent increase from July 2024. One night’s barrage now matches an entire month’s volume from early last year. Shahed drones are increasingly equipped with thermal imaging, improving strike precision.
3. Civilian casualties rise sharply: The Kremlin has intensified its terror campaign against civilians in July, with massive shelling affecting not only areas near the frontline but also settlements far beyond it. On 31 July alone, massive strikes killed 31 people and injured 159 in Kyiv. June 2025 was already the deadliest month for civilians in three years, with 232 killed and 1,343 injured across at least 16 regions and Kyiv. UN figures indicate a tenfold increase in missile and loitering munition attacks compared to June 2024. In total, 6,754 civilian casualties were recorded in the first half of 2025. This represents a 54 percent increase from the same period in 2024. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, at least 13,580 civilians have been killed and 34,115 injured.
4. Civilian evacuations: Kharkivska, Donetska, Zaporizka, Dnipropetrovska, and Sumska oblasts are seeing accelerating evacuations amid intensified shelling and drone attacks. In Donetska alone, nearly 1,000 children are under mandatory evacuation orders. Over 54,800 civilians have left frontline zones in Sumy, but 33,000 remain in areas facing daily threats. Ukraine’s state railway company evacuated 1,239 people from frontline areas in July, double the monthly average from January to June 2025. The number of evacuees from Dnipropetrovska tripled compared to June, while evacuations from Zaporizka nearly doubled. Most evacuees are vulnerable populations: people with disabilities, elderly citizens, families with children, and others at high risk.
Russia’s summer offensive is not just about gaining ground. It is also about destabilising Ukrainian society from within and degrading the state’s ability to function under pressure.1 August 2025
Russia’s sabotage campaign in Europe is becoming more dangerous, decentralised, and difficult to contain.
1 August 2025
European intelligence agencies are now tracking dozens of incidents across the EU involving arson, explosives, and reconnaissance. The Kremlin avoids attribution by using third-country operatives. Many operations are carried out by young foreign nationals recruited via Telegram. Most have no prior criminal records and are paid in cryptocurrency by intermediaries working for Russian intelligence.
Just a few of the incidents within the last year:
1. Yesterday, a Colombian national was arrested in Warsaw for arson attacks coordinated by Russian intelligence operatives.
2. In July, a British court convicted three men for burning a warehouse in London that stored Starlink devices for Ukraine.
3. In June, a Czech court sentenced a Colombian national to eight years in prison for plotting an arson attack on public transport in Prague, which officials believe was coordinated by Russia.
4. The Czech intelligence service (BIS), in its 2024 report, confirmed a broader pattern of Russia using foreigners without direct links to the Russian Federation to carry out hybrid operations and evade attribution.
5. At least 70 such incidents have been publicly reported across Europe since 2022, with numbers rising sharply in 2023 and 2024.
What began as isolated acts of vandalism is now escalating into a systematic hybrid warfare campaign. Saboteurs are targeting military logistics, setting fires near residential areas, and conducting surveillance at aid hubs and bases. Some attacks involve explosives, while others aim to feed false narratives into Russian-language media.
The Kremlin aims not just to sow chaos and fear in Europe but also to disrupt supply chains and aid to Ukraine. European leadership should step up monitoring and disruption of Telegram-based recruitment networks while enhancing institutional and societal resilience against the Kremlin’s hybrid threats.
Russia’s drone war is escalating across Ukraine this summer, with new steps taken by the Kremlin to inflict more physical and psychological damage.
29 July 2025
Since June, Moscow has advanced its full-scale system to sustain and expand drone warfare:
1. A $132 million fund launched in June is backing dual-use tech, including drones, AI, and robotics. Over 250 firms are connected through the Centre for Unmanned Systems, established by the ruling United Russia party and Promsvyazbank to coordinate UAV and dual-use innovation. The Kremlin is focused on scaling battlefield-ready innovation from prototype to mass deployment.
2. VAT exemptions introduced in July have cut drone production costs across the Eurasian Economic Union. The zero percent rate applies to drones under 30 kg and their components, including imports, and is valid through 2027.
3. Belarus is expanding drone and microelectronics output. Previously frozen UAV programs have been reactivated. New production lines for optics and missile-grade electronics are expected to reach full capacity by late 2025.
4. China is increasingly helping to bypass sanctions. Chinese engines are reaching Russia disguised as “refrigeration units.” These shipments have enabled Kupol to triple Garpiya-A1 production, from 2,000 drones in 2024 to over 6,000 planned in 2025, with more than 1,500 already delivered by April. The Garpiya-A1 is a long-range strike drone designed to hit both military and civilian targets.
5. The Kremlin is experimenting with next-generation drones, including AI-guided models, FPV mini-Shaheds, and decoys built to confuse radar and exhaust air defences. The objective is not just destruction but long-term disruption across physical, logistical, and psychological fronts.
6. The Kremlin now launches around 400 to 500 drones daily, striking major cities such as Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Sumy, and frontline zones including Pokrovsk and Kherson.
7. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia may be preparing mass drone offensives of up to 2,000 drones in one night by November. These attacks would aim to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences, deplete missile stocks, and test Western resolve. The pattern of recent strikes suggests that stockpiling is already underway.
This is not just a defence challenge for Ukraine. It is a test of whether the West can keep pace with a new model of warfare. It is high time to ramp up investment in counter-drone systems, resilient infrastructure, and joint production with Ukraine.
My new article is out with Kyiv Post: “The Kremlin’s Drone War Is Now a War on Ukraine’s Resilience.”
26 July 2025
My new article is out with Kyiv Post: “The Kremlin’s Drone War Is Now a War on Ukraine’s Resilience.”
What began as tactical disruption has evolved into industrial-scale drone warfare. Since May, Russia has broken weekly records in drone attacks, culminating in a tenfold surge in aerial and missile strikes compared to June last year. This pattern has continued into July, inflicting a growing number of civilian casualties and widespread infrastructure damage across Ukraine.
In this piece, I argue that Ukraine’s response must go beyond interception. It must focus on strategic resilience. And Europe must treat Ukraine’s defence as its own.
This means the following:
- Scaling layered defence systems. From AI-guided interceptors to mobile jamming units and affordable protection for cities and infrastructure.
- Hardening civil infrastructure. Most casualties now occur far from the front. Shelters, emergency alerts, and psychological support must be treated as national defence.
- Investing in Ukraine’s defence industry. It is a strategic asset, not just a wartime necessity. Europe’s own readiness depends on its success.
- Redesigning sanctions. Targeting not just drone parts, but also the labor, logistics, and raw material chains behind Russia’s drone surge.
What the Kremlin is testing in Ukraine is an exportable model of hybrid coercion: combining drone saturation, infrastructure disruption, and psychological pressure.
This is not just about helping Ukraine survive another wave of attacks. It is about ensuring that NATO and EU member states are not caught unprepared if the same hybrid tactics are used against them in the near future.
New piece titled Landmines and Land Use: Unblocking Ukraine’s Rural and Climate Recovery published at ISPI
25 July 2025
Honoured to have a new piece published with ISPI – Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale today: “Landmines and Land Use: Unblocking Ukraine’s Rural and Climate Recovery”.
Ukraine is now the most heavily mined country in the world. Over 139,000 km² of land is contaminated, disrupting agriculture, endangering rural life, and delaying climate-smart recovery. This is not just a humanitarian issue. It is a strategic bottleneck for Ukraine’s recovery and a threat to Europe’s food security.
In this article, I argue that mine clearance must be fully integrated with:
- Soil health and ecological regeneration. Without this, Ukraine risks rebuilding on degraded, unsafe land.
- Green recovery and land use planning. From agroforestry and irrigation to biodiversity corridors and renewables.
- EU alignment and smart donor funding. Bundling demining with land restoration and targeting high-value zones.
- Local production and rural inclusion. Building Ukraine’s indigenous capacity for demining and resilience.
Some pilot initiatives already show what success could look like, from drone-sown pollinator zones to AI-powered clearance. But overall progress remains at risk unless donors and the Ukrainian government link demining directly with land value, climate goals, and EU accession planning.
I am grateful to the ISPI team for the opportunity to contribute this piece.
You can read the full article here:
https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/landmines-and-land-use-unblocking-ukraines-rural-and-climate-recovery-214597
The Kremlin continues its methodical eradication of Ukrainian culture and identity in occupied territories of Ukraine.
24 July 2025
The recent developments in the Kremlin’s strategy in occupied territories point to a systematic campaign to dismantle Ukrainian identity through legal, linguistic, and administrative tools:
Citizenship: A week ago, Russia passed a law banning the revocation of citizenship for residents of occupied Ukrainian territories, while expanding the grounds for stripping naturalised Russians. These include charges like spreading “military fakes” or refusing conscription. The objective is to consolidate control over occupied populations while increasing pressure and deterrence inside Russia.
Language erased: Starting from 1 September 2025, the Ukrainian language will be fully banned in schools across all occupied regions. Families had already faced pressure to abandon the language. The new order removes all remaining options for instruction in Ukrainian.
Education as a front line: Ukrainian books have been removed. Students are taught a revised history that denies Ukraine’s existence. Remote education in Ukrainian is met with threats of fines, loss of custody, or arrest.
Services used as leverage: Access to pensions, medical care, and social support has been tied to the acceptance of Russian passports. Those who refuse are excluded from basic services and risk being cut out of economic life.
All these recent developments point to the Kremlin’s objective of devising a bureaucratic infrastructure of erasure of Ukrainian culture and identity and enforcement of Russian passports and ideology, methodically applied in occupied areas to overwrite national identity and eliminate Ukrainian presence.
Russia’s 21 July strikes mark continued escalation in psychological and hybrid pressure.
22 July 2025
Russia’s coordinated drone and missile attacks on 21 July reflect a continued escalation in its hybrid war against Ukraine:
1. Kyiv was targeted with a combined drone and missile strike. One person was killed and two injured. Explosions and fires were reported across Darnytskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Solomianskyi districts. Metro services were disrupted as air raid alerts lasted hours.
2. Ivano-Frankivsk oblast experienced its most intense attack of the full-scale war. Dozens of strikes hit critical and civilian infrastructure across three villages. Local authorities described it as the largest single assault since 2022.
3. Poland activated air defence assets and scrambled fighter jets. The country raised its air force readiness posture as missiles and drones neared its airspace, underscoring the cross-border threat of Russia’s tactics.
4. Russia is tripling drone production, deploying new variants to overwhelm defences and destabilise society. Moscow is combining mass output with AI, thermal targeting, and decoys to exhaust Ukrainian air defence and induce psychological fatigue.
5. Ukrainian recruitment centres are increasingly being targeted. These strikes aim to destroy mobilisation records, intimidate civilians, and disrupt the functioning of Ukraine’s draft and defence systems.
These tactics follow a deliberate hybrid strategy to paralyse urban life, degrade institutional response, and erode Ukrainian resilience.
China has provided systemic support to the Kremlin’s war effort through technology, financing, and increasingly, military assistance.
20 July 2025
Despite official denials, Chinese technology is deeply embedded in Russia’s military production lines:
1. Chinese-made parts have been found in Russian “Shahed” drones, manufactured just weeks before the latest strikes on Kyiv
2. Russia’s drone factory in Khabarovsk is working with Chinese engineers to produce modified Autel Max 4Ts, commercial quadcopter drones designed initially for civilian use but now adapted for battlefield roles.
3. Dual-use exports from China include optics, chips, missile launch chassis, laser technology, and industrial machinery.
4. Supply chains are hidden through intermediaries like seafood and agricultural trade companies.
Beijing claims neutrality but continues supplying the components that keep Russia’s war machine running.
Meanwhile, other forms of foreign support to Russia’s war effort are intensifying:
1. North Korean artillery and troops are increasingly involved in the war, reportedly with quiet Chinese approval
2. Facilities within the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, a key hub for Russian drone production, reportedly rely on forced or coercive labour, including hundreds of foreign recruits and potentially up to 25,000 North Korean workers to meet wartime manufacturing quotas
Russia’s 2025 drone strategy has shifted into high gear, driven by top-level political support and accelerated localization
20 July 2025
Russia’s drone industry has entered a new phase of state-supported expansion. Prime Minister Mishustin recently announced that production of unmanned aerial systems has already tripled compared to the initial 2025 targets. This surge is visible in both military and dual-use categories, reflecting Moscow’s push to scale up rapidly and localize critical components.
Key developments include:
1. New domestic production lines are turning out Russian-made Li-ion batteries, propellers, and control systems. These efforts aim to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers and ensure technological autonomy.
2. This year, the first facility producing high-quality propellers and rotor blades for drones of all sizes was launched using custom composite materials to reduce weight and increase durability.
3. Also in 2025, a new lithium-ion battery plant opened in Tolyatti, with an annual capacity of 20 MWh. The batteries are designed for various unmanned aerial systems and support Russia’s goal of complete vertical integration in drone production.
4. The Kremlin continues to prioritize innovation across tactical, logistical, and surveillance drone types. This includes solar-powered models, jam-resistant navigation, and modular payload drones.
Drone manufacturing is becoming a pillar of Russia’s military-industrial strategy. The objective is not just quantity, but deep localization and battlefield adaptability. The priority is clear: outproduce Ukraine in drone numbers, specialize in new variants, and close the gap in domestic innovation.
Ukraine and its Western partners should pay close attention, as this isn’t just about numbers but about the infrastructure behind them.
Sources:
Interfax: https://lnkd.in/eBzvMeXa
Interfax: https://lnkd.in/eD83GEKJ
iXBT News: https://lnkd.in/eGh74FBj
Ria Novosti: https://lnkd.in/e7GAD2_p
Russia’s Summer War: Civilian Casualties Mount as Terror Campaign Intensifies
19 July 2025
Russia’s military campaign against Ukraine is escalating across both territory and civilian impact:
1. The months of May and June saw a sharp increase in territorial losses. 556 km² of Ukrainian territory was occupied in June, following 449 km² in May, the worst two-month trend in 2025. These figures surpassed the previous monthly threshold of 200 km², which had remained unchanged since February.
2. 1,575 civilians were killed or injured in June, the highest number in three years. Drones and loitering munitions caused more than 50 percent of those casualties. Drone attacks in June 2025 were ten times higher than in June 2024.
3. The trend continued in July. Fifty-seven civilians were killed between 5 and 11 July across nine regions, including Kyiv.
4. On 18 and 19 July, Russia launched 379 aerial attacks, including 344 drones and 35 missiles, many of which struck civilian areas in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kherson, killing at least four people, injuring over fifteen, and damaging residential buildings, a train, clinics, schools, and critical infrastructure.
The Kremlin uses drones to erode public morale, overwhelm daily life, and stretch Ukraine’s defence systems. Its objective is to destabilise Ukrainian society from within and degrade the state’s ability to function under pressure.
Sources:
OHCHR: https://lnkd.in/e4newYwF
DeepState: https://lnkd.in/eEKUBZxh
ACLED: https://lnkd.in/dMw7xYHe
DW: https://p.dw.com/p/4xdZy
Fakty: https://lnkd.in/eNHFbWxR
Kyiv Post: https://lnkd.in/eGep-7cW
One of the Kremlin’s key cyber disruption networks has been structurally dismantled.
16 July 2025
NoName057(16), a group responsible for politically motivated cyberattacks across Europe, has had its core infrastructure taken offline. The joint operation, named Operation Eastwood, involved law enforcement and judicial authorities from over a dozen countries, with support from Ukraine, the United States, Canada, and several EU agencies.
This was not just a technical takedown. It was a coordinated legal and strategic response to a hybrid threat that has been active across multiple NATO and EU states.
Key takeaways:
1. Major part of NoName057(16) main infrastructure taken offline
2. Over 100 servers were dismantled, including the group’s main command infrastructure
3. Seven arrest warrants were issued, including six targeting Russian nationals
4. 24 house searches (2 in Czechia, 1 in France, 3 in Germany, 5 in Italy, 12 in Spain, 1 in Poland)
5. 13 individuals questioned (2 in Germany, 1 in France, 4 in Italy, 1 in Poland, 5 in Spain)
6. More than 1,000 identified supporters were formally warned of criminal liability via direct messaging
7. Investigators documented a pattern of gamified recruitment, crypto incentives, and ideological messaging aimed at mobilising low-skill attackers
Why this matters:
NoName057(16) was not built for espionage. It was designed for disruption. Its attacks focused on visibility, symbolism, and pressure. Targets included government portals, public institutions, and high-level political events.
This operation reflects a shift in how hybrid activity is addressed. Cyber disruption is now met with coordinated legal consequences and multi-country action. It also shows that digital solidarity is possible when threats are treated as shared security risks.
The West is beginning to respond at the right scale.
Source: https://www.europol.europa.eu/media-press/newsroom/news/global-operation-targets-noname05716-pro-russian-cybercrime-network
My new article is out with Visegrad Insight
16 July 2025
Honoured to be featured by Visegrad Insight. My latest piece, The Drone War: How Ukraine Can Keep Pace with Russia’s Rapid Escalation, is now live.
The battlefield is evolving fast, and Ukraine’s defences must adapt just as rapidly. Kremlin’s mass production of advanced drones is reshaping modern warfare and testing both Kyiv’s resilience and Western resolve.
Without urgent reforms, Ukraine risks falling behind in a war increasingly defined by drone saturation, AI targeting, and hybrid air assaults.
Read the full article: https://visegradinsight.eu/the-drone-war-how-ukraine-can-keep-pace-with-russias-rapid-escalation/
June 2025 was the deadliest month for civilians in Ukraine since 2022
15 July 2025
According to the latest OHCHR report released yesterday, at least 1,575 civilians were killed or injured in June, including 232 fatalities. These are the highest monthly figures in three years.
Over half of all casualties came from missile and drone strikes in urban areas. Russia launched 10 times more long-range munitions in June 2025 compared to the same month last year, with widespread attacks on cities, critical infrastructure, and residential buildings.
Civilian casualties were recorded in 16 regions and Kyiv. The vast majority of civilian casualties (98 per cent) occurred in areas under the control of the Government of Ukraine.
The Kremlin pursues a hybrid warfare strategy aimed at exhausting Ukraine’s air defences, destabilising civilian life, and undermining national resilience from within.
You can read the whole report here – https://lnkd.in/exBngenw
How Putin’s Deadly New Drone Strategy Is Changing the War in Ukraine
11 July 2025
I was pleased to contribute expert insights to The i Paper for a piece by Radina Gigova examining Russia’s intensifying drone warfare and its implications for Ukraine and European defence.
The article explores how Russia has shifted from importing drones to building a massive domestic ecosystem, deploying AI-enabled swarms and deep-strike tactics backed by Iran, China, and a $172 billion military budget.
Key points I emphasised for the piece:
• Russia has introduced several technological innovations, such as higher-flying drones, AI-enabled autonomous systems, and fibre optic-controlled aircraft that bypass jamming and can strike up to 20km behind Ukrainian lines
• Their drone tactics have evolved into coordinated, multi-directional swarms often paired with missile strikes, designed to overwhelm air defences and inflict cumulative psychological damage. Some of the recent attacks have involved over 500 drones in a single night
• The goal is to use unmanned systems, missile strikes, and manpower to secure more battlefield gains before any serious negotiation
• This is not just about defending Ukrainian airspace. It is about breaking the Kremlin’s current momentum. Drone and missile production is directly tied to Russia’s push to dominate the skies and soften resistance ahead of territorial offensives in Ukraine. Disrupting that pipeline through sanctions, interdiction, or allied tech support should be a top strategic priority
You can read the full article here: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/how-putin-deadly-new-drone-strategy-changing-war-ukraine-3800208
Southern Europe: a Soft Target in Russia’s Expanding Hybrid War.
8 July 2025
While much of the focus remains on sabotage and cyberattacks along NATO’s Eastern Flank, the Kremlin has quietly intensified its hybrid operations in Southern Europe. The tools are slower, less visible, and designed to weaken cohesion from within.
In this piece, Hugo Blewett-Mundy and I explore how Russia is exploiting gaps in preparedness across Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal through disinformation, energy pressure, and cultural influence. The goal isn’t immediate disruption but the gradual erosion of trust in institutions, support for Ukraine, and alignment with EU and NATO policies.
What’s most concerning is the lack of response. Southern European governments have yet to build effective hybrid threat strategies. Civil society organisations remain underfunded. Media literacy efforts are minimal. In contrast, Eastern Europe has developed more proactive defences.
We argue it’s time for the South to move from passive monitoring to active deterrence. This involves establishing strategic communications units, launching civic education campaigns, and investing in independent journalism.
You can read the article here – https://neweasterneurope.eu/2025/07/08/southern-europe-a-soft-target-in-russias-expanding-hybrid-war/
My new article is out with Atlantic Council: “Putin is winning the drone war as Russia overwhelms Ukraine’s defenses.”
8 July 2025
Russia is now producing over 5,000 drones per month, upgrading capabilities with AI and larger warheads, and launching record-scale aerial attacks. Ukraine’s startup-driven innovation gave it an early edge, but that advantage is now under severe pressure.
In this piece, I examine how Russia seized the initiative in the drone war, why Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling to keep up, and what must happen next.
You can read it here – https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-winning-the-drone-war-as-russia-overwhelms-ukraines-defenses/
Kyiv endures record drone barrage on 4 July as US military aid is halted and uncertainty grows.
4 July 2025
Overnight on 4 July 2025, Kyiv suffered the largest Russian drone and missile attack of the war. Russia launched 550 drones and 11 missiles at the capital, with dozens penetrating air defences, injuring civilians, and causing widespread damage across multiple districts.
This escalation came just hours after a call between Presidents Trump and Putin, and amid news that critical US military aid, including Patriot air defence interceptors, Hellfire and GMLRS missiles, Stingers, and 155mm artillery shells, has been halted. The US decision, explained as a response to concerns over national stockpiles and shifting priorities, has left Ukrainian officials seeking clarity and urgently assessing the potential impact.
A new report from the United Nations human rights office confirms this escalation in civilian suffering. Between December 2024 and May 2025, nearly 1,000 civilians were killed and more than 4,800 were injured, representing a 37% increase from the previous year. The UN attributes much of this rise to intensified drone and missile attacks in populated areas, including direct strikes on hospitals and civilian infrastructure. The report warns that the use of short-range drones, which allow operators to see and target civilians in real time, “raises grave concerns” about adherence to international humanitarian law.
As I recently wrote in the Kyiv Post: “Drone warfare has become a hallmark of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion, combining cost-efficiency with logistical and psychological disruption. These attacks are no longer isolated tactical operations but part of a broader strategy to destabilise Ukrainian society from within and to degrade the Ukrainian state’s ability to function effectively under pressure.”
Halts in US support and ambiguous communication risk encouraging further Kremlin escalation, as gaps in Ukraine’s defences are quickly exploited. Each delay increases the likelihood that the Kremlin will intensify its attacks, inflict greater civilian harm, and attempt to force Ukraine into territorial concessions or full surrender.
It is essential to ensure clear and sustained US commitments on deliveries of air defence interceptors, drones, and advanced anti-drone systems for Ukraine. This is a critical moment for Ukraine, and failing to act could result in many more lives being lost.
Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s hybrid campaign now depends on more than statements. Timely and predictable US support remains essential, not only for Ukraine’s survival but also for European security as a whole.
Russia Expands Alabuga Drone Complex, Recruits Foreign Labour for War Production
4 July 2025
Recent satellite imagery and open-source reporting confirm a rapid expansion of the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, which has become a central hub for Russian drone manufacturing. Since late 2024, Alabuga has added more than 160 hectares of new industrial plots and dozens of dormitories built to house foreign workers.
Russia’s expanding drone campaign is a core part of the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare strategy, as I recently discussed in my analysis for Kyiv Post. The Alabuga case adds a new dimension, highlighting how labour exploitation and global recruitment are being integrated into the war economy alongside new technologies and production lines.
Hundreds of young women from Africa, Latin America, and Asia have been recruited under international vocational training programs, often lured with promises of education or good pay, but instead finding themselves on assembly lines for attack drones, working under coercive conditions and facing significant risks. Recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War indicates that Russia may bring in up to 25,000 North Korean workers to increase drone production at Alabuga further.
These developments align with the findings of the recent report, ‘Who is Making Russia’s Drones?’ by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. This report details how Russia’s war economy increasingly relies on the exploitation of vulnerable labour, blending military production with misleading recruitment and harsh working conditions. Alabuga’s expansion and labour practices are now drawing scrutiny from international governments and civil society.
The Kremlin is mobilising every available tool from its hybrid toolkit, from technological innovation and global recruitment to economic pressure and information campaigns, to sustain its war efforts in Ukraine. The Alabuga case is a clear example of how drone production, labour exploitation, and state power are all integrated into a single strategy.
Russia’s Drone Campaign is Part of Its Hybrid Warfare Strategy
3 July 2025
Russia’s expanding drone campaign is not just a battlefield tactic but a core part of the Kremlin’s broader hybrid warfare strategy to destabilise Ukraine. By relentlessly targeting civilian areas, the Kremlin aims to instil fear, drain public confidence, and place increasing pressure on government institutions. These actions align with Russia’s hybrid warfare playbook, which fuses physical destruction with disinformation campaigns, psychological warfare, and cyber interference.
All the signs point to the Kremlin’s intention to continue intensifying its drone campaign in Ukraine. Russia is rapidly scaling up production and investing in new drone technologies, including AI-enabled drones and decoys, as well as coordinated swarms of drones.
Why does this matter for Europe?
The operational and psychological tactics being tested in Ukraine today could pose a threat to other European countries tomorrow. The need for smarter, cost-effective air defence, stronger civil resilience, and deeper international cooperation is now more urgent than ever.
Read my analysis at Kyiv Post: https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/55148
The Kremlin continues to innovate and invest in advancing its military capabilities.
2 July 2025
According to satellite imagery and media reports, Russia is allegedly expanding the Kazan aviation plant, its key facility for producing and modernising strategic bombers, including those capable of carrying nuclear weapons. One new building reportedly covers 19,000 m², with nearly €1 billion allocated for modernisation. Despite these investments, the project is reportedly facing severe delays due to sanctions and labour shortages. The Kazan plant remains Russia’s only site able to replace strategic bombers lost to Ukrainian drone attacks, highlighting both the Kremlin’s ambitions and its industrial challenges.
At the same time, Russia is introducing new high-tech weapons on the battlefield. Ukrainian forces recently shot down a Grom-1 hybrid missile-bomb over Dnipro. This weapon has a range of up to 120 km and advanced navigation systems, and is capable of causing severe damage to both military and civilian targets. While sanctions and component shortages reportedly limit production, Grom-1 strikes have already led to civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction in Ukraine.
Continued support and investment in Ukraine’s defence innovation are essential to counter these evolving threats.
Russia’s drone surge is a test of resilience for Ukraine and Europe.
2 July 2025
Russia’s rapid scale-up in drone production and deployment marks a dangerous evolution in its hybrid warfare against Ukraine. Recent months have seen not only more frequent attacks but also a shift toward active targeting of civilian infrastructure, striking cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and others with waves of drones used to overwhelm air defences and inflict severe physical and moral damage against civilians.
Key developments to watch:
1. In 2024 alone, Russian drone manufacturing reportedly reached 1.4 million units, with the Kremlin allegedly planning to produce around 3-4 million drones in 2025.
2. Since 2023, Russia has nearly doubled the production facilities in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. It has recently announced plans to launch a new drone manufacturing plant in Belarus, with an annual production capacity of up to 100,000 drones.
3. A new program aimed at training 1.5 million drone operators by 2030 was launched under Putin’s auspices earlier this year.
4. Russia continues to innovate and test new modifications of drones. In June, Ukraine downed a new Shahed-136 MS001 drone that utilises AI, thermal vision, and autonomous targeting capabilities, enabling it to operate in swarms and select targets without external commands. The drone also contains Western and Chinese components, highlighting ongoing challenges in enforcing sanctions.
5. The Kremlin’s emphasis is on Shahed-type attack drones and Gerbera-style decoys, designed to confuse and exhaust Ukrainian air defences.
6. Russian drones are not just military tools. They’re part of a broader hybrid warfare campaign that is not just to force Ukraine to expend expensive air defence resources, but also disrupt civilian morale.
There are several key priorities for Ukrainian leadership and its Western allies to counter the Russian drone surge:
1. Ramp up drone production to support Ukraine
2. Invest actively in cost-effective counter-drone solutions (e.g., mobile jamming units, high-energy laser systems, and AI-enabled defences)
3. Expand shelter capacities, advance emergency communication systems, and bolster the resilience of urban infrastructure
4. Invest in psychological resilience programs
5. Treat Russian drone warfare as a strategic, not just tactical, threat to the region
Russia’s drone campaign is not just about Ukraine, but it’s a warning for all of Europe.
Russia is actively conducting hybrid warfare across Europe.
1 July 2025
The recent arson attack on Bundeswehr military trucks in Erfurt, Germany, is just the latest example. Video footage shows at least six Rheinmetall MAN trucks of various modifications on fire inside a secure military facility – https://lnkd.in/e-FNUDZd
This is not a local issue. Russian sabotage and subversion are actively targeting critical infrastructure, defence companies, and military assets across the entire EU.
I’ve analysed this escalating threat in recent articles for New Eastern Europe
and the Atlantic Council. The Kremlin’s strategy blends sabotage, cyberattacks, and information warfare, always aiming to stay below the threshold for a unified Western response.
What European leadership should do:
1. Shift from reactive to proactive defence of infrastructure and society
2. Invest in next-generation security technologies and coordination
3. Draw lessons from Ukr
It was an excellent week for Ukraine’s defence sector and EU-Ukraine defence collaboration.
1 July 2025
It was an excellent week for Ukraine’s defence sector and EU-Ukraine defence collaboration. At the recent NATO summit in The Hague, allies reaffirmed their sovereign commitment to support Ukraine and acknowledged that Ukraine’s security is integral to the Alliance’s security. For the first time, direct contributions to Ukraine’s defence and defence industry will count toward NATO defence spending targets.
Other key developments:
1. Denmark is investing $47 million in a joint facility for drone production on the Danish territory, with all output supplied to Ukraine’s armed forces.
2. The UK and Ukraine have launched a three-year co-production project to deliver advanced drones to the front lines. Drones will be produced in the UK, leveraging both Ukrainian innovation and British industrial capacity.
3. The Netherlands is funding 600,000 domestically produced drones for immediate use by Ukraine.
4. Ukraine is also advancing over 20 joint projects with global arms manufacturers domestically, supported by upcoming legislation to stimulate investment and prioritise domestic producers, while relocating key facilities to safer regions protected by air defence.
As President Zelensky recently underlined, Ukraine’s defence industry can now produce over 8 million drones annually and nearly 1,000 types of defence products. However, almost 40% of this industrial base remains underutilised due to insufficient investment. This is the same underutilization challenge I discussed in my article “Joint Ukraine-EU defence is a strategic win for both.” Unlocking this potential requires not just funding but deeper regulatory alignment and targeted joint projects with European partners.
This momentum comes as Russia escalates its drone war against Ukraine. Recent independent legal assessments, including the new report “Airstrikes and Atrocities: A Legal Assessment of Russia’s Aerial Campaign in Ukraine” by the International Human Rights Clinic at Harvard Law School and International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR), and recently presented at Atlantic Council, confirm that these aerial attacks qualify not only as war crimes but also as crimes against humanity. These attacks target civilians, infrastructure, and Ukrainian identity as part of a broader strategy of total war.
Strengthening Ukraine’s air defence and joint production benefits both European and Ukrainian security. It is also a legal and moral imperative for Europe and the wider international community.
Russia is actively conducting hybrid warfare across Europe.
1 July 2025
The recent arson attack on Bundeswehr military trucks in Erfurt, Germany, is just the latest example. Video footage shows at least six Rheinmetall MAN trucks of various modifications on fire inside a secure military facility – https://lnkd.in/e-FNUDZd
This is not a local issue. Russian sabotage and subversion are actively targeting critical infrastructure, defence companies, and military assets across the entire EU.
I’ve analysed this escalating threat in recent articles for New Eastern Europe
and the Atlantic Council. The Kremlin’s strategy blends sabotage, cyberattacks, and information warfare, always aiming to stay below the threshold for a unified Western response.
What European leadership should do:
1. Shift from reactive to proactive defence of infrastructure and society
2. Invest in next-generation security technologies and coordination
3. Draw lessons from Ukraine’s resilience and whole-of-society response
These aren’t isolated incidents. Russia’s hybrid operations now threaten infrastructure and security across the entire continent.
The executive summary of my full reconstruction report is now out in European View, the journal of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.
1 July 2025
Ukraine faces one of the world’s most significant reconstruction challenges. Ukraine’s reconstruction offers a historic chance for mutually beneficial cooperation with the EU, supporting Ukraine’s recovery while advancing the EU’s interests.
The executive summary of my full reconstruction report is now out in European View, the journal of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. This brief piece provides a strategic preview of the full report, introducing the scale of Ukraine’s reconstruction challenge and outlining how EU–Ukraine cooperation can support recovery across the most affected sectors: energy, housing, and transport.
Read the executive summary in European View (SAGE) – https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/17816858251351480
Read the full report – https://www.martenscentre.eu/publication/reconstructing-ukraine-how-the-eu-and-ukraine-can-mutually-benefit/
My article is featured in the Summer 2025 edition of Business Ukraine magazine.
24 June 2025
I am excited to share that my article is featured in the Summer 2025 edition of Business Ukraine magazine.
The piece, “Russian Hybrid Warfare: Europe Should Learn from Ukraine,” appears on page 48 and explores how Ukraine’s decade-long experience countering Russian disinformation, cyberattacks, sabotage, and institutional disruption offers valuable lessons for Europe.
As Russia escalates its hybrid campaign across the EU, Ukraine’s model, based on public-private coordination, digital resilience, and civic engagement, provides a practical reference point for strengthening Europe’s defences.
Many thanks to Peter Dickinson, publisher of Business Ukraine magazine, for including my piece in this edition.
You can read the latest Summer 2025 edition of Business Ukraine magazine here: https://businessukraine.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Business-Ukraine-Summer-2025.pdf
Joint Ukraine–EU defence is a strategic win for both” in The Loop, the political science blog of the European Consortium for Political Research.
19 June 2025
Just published my new piece “Joint Ukraine–EU defence is a strategic win for both” in The Loop, the political science blog of the European Consortium for Political Research.
This short piece outlines how Ukraine’s defence sector has grown dramatically since 2022, yet much of its capacity remains underused.
I argue that joint EU–Ukraine defence projects, legal alignment, and targeted investment could sustain Ukraine’s war effort and significantly boost Europe’s strategic autonomy.
🔗Read the complete analysis here
GLOBSEC 2025 Takeaways: Why Europe Must Lead on Security, Resilience, and Ukraine
19 June 2025
It was a great pleasure to attend GLOBSEC’s 20th edition. Grateful to the GLOBSEC team for this opportunity.
Key takeaways from sessions I attended:
The New Marshall Plan for Ukraine
Ukraine’s reconstruction needs clear priorities, investment, and scaled implementation. Key issues include labour shortages resulting from emigration, the revival of the defence sector, and financing. Czechia supports frontline regions with dual-use materials. The EBRD has invested €7B in infrastructure, with plans to scale up efforts alongside EU partners. Frozen Russian assets were discussed as a funding source. Despite investor caution, optimism is driven by Ukraine’s resilience.
The Road to Legitimate Peace in Ukraine
Russia’s war targets both Ukraine and the international rules-based order. Ukraine is innovating with drones and land robotics, and building joint defence capacity with EU partners. China’s military alignment with Russia was flagged as a key concern. The message was clear: Putin only understands strength.
Post-Putin Russia: What Comes After?
Any future Russia must face its past. Without accountability, authoritarianism will persist. Western engagement with the opposition should not wait for regime collapse. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine is a precondition for its profound transformation.
Fortifying the Home Front: Building Resilience
The EU is advancing a civil preparedness strategy with interoperable systems, digital tools, and crisis education. Finland’s early resilience training was cited as a model. Resilience is now a long-term investment in infrastructure, tech, and people.
Towards a European Defence Union
The EU must rapidly scale up defence production. Russia produces more ammunition in three months than NATO and the EU do in a year. Joint procurement and cooperation with Ukraine’s defence industry are essential. Gaps in capacity, supply chains, and coordination need urgent action.
Critical Raw Materials and Strategic Autonomy
Europe’s defence and energy ambitions rely on critical raw materials, with over 65% of processing controlled by China. Permitting delays, low investment, and export restrictions remain key hurdles. EU-wide coordination, faster permitting, and stronger transatlantic and Global South partnerships are needed. These materials must be treated as strategic assets, not just commodities.
Future-Proofing the News
Autocracies use AI to distort narratives and discredit journalism. Regulation, media literacy, and newsroom safeguards are vital. Tech platforms must ensure transparency, fair value for content, and multilingual media plurality.
AI and Democratic Governance
AI’s real value lies in better public services, not just private gain. Strategic foresight, public-private partnerships, and ethical regulation will be crucial to ensuring that AI serves democratic goals and societal needs.
Why the Kremlin’s Peace Narrative Is Strategic Deception translated into Polish by Onet.Pl
18 June 2025
It’s good to see one more of my articles appear in Onet Premium. “The Kremlin’s Summer Offensive Plans Risk a Major Humanitarian Crisis,” originally published in Kyiv Post, was recently adapted for Polish readers.
The article analyses how the Kremlin’s troop buildup and push for a “buffer zone” in northern Ukraine are part of a broader hybrid strategy aimed at displacing civilians and overwhelming local governance.
It warns of a potential humanitarian crisis if Western funding and evacuation support fall short.
🔗 Read Polish adaptation here
My latest report, “Securing Europe’s Critical Minerals: Leveraging the EU–Ukraine Partnership Amidst US Competition,” is out for the Wilfried Martens Centre for European
17 June 2025
My latest report, “Securing Europe’s Critical Minerals: Leveraging the EU–Ukraine Partnership Amidst US Competition,” is now out for the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.
This report analyses how the EU can secure vital raw materials by deepening cooperation with Ukraine in response to the US–Ukraine minerals deal. It examines the deal’s legal, geopolitical, and economic implications and outlines how EU–Ukraine collaboration on critical minerals can enhance Europe’s industrial resilience while supporting Ukraine’s recovery and path to EU integration.
Key focus areas include:
• EU–Ukraine partnership on critical raw materials
• Legal, economic, and geopolitical risks of the US–Ukraine minerals deal
• Strengthening EU supply chains and supporting Ukraine’s recovery and integration
“The Kremlin’s Summer Offensive Plans Risk a Major Humanitarian Crisis,” is now out at Kyiv Post
16 June 2025
My new article, “The Kremlin’s Summer Offensive Plans Risk a Major Humanitarian Crisis,” is now out at Kyiv Post.
As G7 leaders meet this week in Canada, the Kremlin is deploying 125,000 troops near Ukraine’s northern border and preparing to establish a so-called “buffer zone” in the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.
This is not merely a military tactic but part of a broader hybrid strategy. It aims to force displacement, overwhelm local governance, and destabilise Ukraine from within. If not addressed urgently, the humanitarian consequences could be severe by autumn.
• Ukraine’s 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is only 20% funded
• Over 200,000 civilians near the frontlines may be displaced by autumn
• Evacuations are already being hindered by drone and shelling attacks
Military aid alone will not be enough. Western leaders must also support evacuation efforts, restore critical infrastructure, and ensure that humanitarian organisations operating in Ukraine are not left without funding or operational support.
🔗 Read it here
GLOBSEC 2025: Interesting session on the first day on “What Comes After. Post-Putin Russia”.
14 June 2025
There was a very interesting session I attended on the first day of GLOBSEC titled “What Comes After. Post-Putin Russia”, with such speakers as Vladimir Kara-Murza, Theresa Fallon, Evelyn N. Farkas, and Petr Kolář, moderated by Roland Freudenstein. They touched upon several points that deserve special attention:
1. Reflection on totalitarian trauma is essential after Putin’s departure. This includes honest reflection on the crimes of the past, including those committed under Soviet rule. Accountability must come first, for war crimes, repression, and the system built around violence.
2. Preparation is equally urgent. The West should already be actively meeting with all opposition leaders. Dialogue cannot wait until the regime collapses.
3. One of the core mistakes of the 1990s was wishful thinking. The West told Russians they had “won,” encouraged a vision of prosperity and democracy, but ignored what was happening on the ground. The Yeltsin years were a disaster. Then came Putin, framed as a stabilizer. The signals about his genuine imperialist ambitions were there early on, but the West ignored them.
4. Putin’s regime made it clear: Russia could only survive as a superpower by dominating Ukraine and resisting the liberal West.
5. Another strategic failure was structural. The EU and NATO offered post-Warsaw Pact countries a future. That promise worked. Russia never received such a promise for many reasons. Yet post-Putin Russia will need a real path forward, politically, economically, and institutionally.
6. None of this matters without a Ukrainian victory. Putin’s regime, the militarized economy, and the China–Russia axis, all of it will outlast Putin unless the system is broken and reformed from the outside.
7. Russia must be defeated militarily in Ukraine. Only a clear defeat can break the imperial mindset and open the space for peace and stability in the region.
GLOBSEC 2025: Interesting final session on “Fortifying the Home Front: How to Build Resilience.”
14 June 2025
There was an insightful final session at @GLOBSEC on “Fortifying the Home Front: How to Build Resilience,” featuring Mr. Vit Rakusan, Minister of the Interior of the Czech Republic.
A few quick reflections from my side:
• Ukraine has much to teach the EU when it comes to adapting infrastructure for wartime conditions.
• A new EU civil preparedness strategy is in development, with resilience increasingly viewed as an investment in education, digitalisation, AI deployment, and cross-sector coordination.
• Under this evolving EU vision, crisis response systems across member states should become fully connected and interoperable in the coming years. Real-time information exchange will be critical, especially in emergencies.
• The war in Ukraine exposed the gap in EU societal resilience and the urgent need to strengthen it.
• Finland was cited as a positive example. Its education system equips pupils with practical crisis-response skills, and the population is broadly trained to act in emergencies.
To be resilient today means investing in technology, preparedness, and people.
GLOBSEC 2025: Interesting session on “Future-Proofing the News.”
14 June 2025
Interesting session on “Future-Proofing the News.” At GLOBSEC
Autocrats are using powerful AI tools to sway public opinion and influence people. They no longer need people to carry out traditional journalistic processes. Tech platforms give them the ability to track sources, censor content, and amplify selected narratives. This adds pressure on journalists and weakens trust in credible platforms.
We live in the age of information warfare. The battlefield is expanding fast. AI disrupts traffic to reliable media, bombards us with manipulated content, and helps promote extreme voices. Russian interference in Moldova and Romania is just one example. In Poland, there are far-right actors spreading fake news and anti-Semitic narratives.
Journalism and expertise matter. They help trace sources, verify facts, and ensure transparency. But we also need stronger regulation of AI application.
Media literacy must start early. Finland already includes it at the elementary school level. This should become a priority across all education levels. Without it, AI-driven disinformation will only grow.
Newsrooms also need updated ethical rules for AI use. We must be careful not to overuse AI tools in ways that harm public trust.
Five principles for working with AI and tech companies were shared:
1. They must seek authorisation before using journalistic content
2. If permission is granted, fair value must be recognised
3. Accuracy matters
4. Media plurality across languages is essential
5. There must be real dialogue between legacy media and tech platforms
Pulling resources will be critical in the AI age. There is still demand for truthful, accurate information. And this is exactly what malicious actors are trying to undermine.
GLOBSEC 2025: Interesting session on “From Disruption to Diffusion: AI and the Architecture of Modern Economies and Societies.”
13 June 2025
Interesting session on “From Disruption to Diffusion: AI and the Architecture of Modern Economies and Societies.” at GLOBSEC
A few takeaways from the discussion:
AI is transforming how we diagnose, analyse data, and save lives, especially in healthcare. But its real potential lies in broader applications across education, transport, and the public sector. Personalized learning, predictive diagnostics, and smarter infrastructure are just some of the ways AI can deliver public value. It will also play a critical role in strengthening Europe’s security and defence posture.
We need clear, publicly minded policies to ensure AI serves society, not just a handful of dominant players. Public and private sectors must work in synergy to shape AI responsibly.
GLOBSEC 2025: Interesting session on “The Road to Legitimate Peace in Ukraine: A Question of International Order.”
13 June 2025
Interesting session on “The Road to Legitimate Peace in Ukraine: A Question of International Order.” at GLOBSEC
We didn’t listen to Putin’s signals for too long. Now he is testing us, aiming to undermine European and Euro-Atlantic unity from within. Putin leads a revisionist regime that seeks territorial expansion and uses the full hybrid warfare toolbox against the West. The Kremlin is waging a covert war on Western democracies. It’s time to call these hybrid attacks what they are: acts of terrorism.
Ukraine is rewriting the rules of war through battlefield innovation: sea and air drones, land robotics, and new frontline tactics. Joint ventures on air defence and missile systems with European partners are not just needed but mutually beneficial. Ukraine can share advanced technologies and combat-proven know-how. Putin is not just challenging Ukraine, but the entire international order and the West itself.
Europe must prepare for growing manpower demands. And let’s not forget: China is working closely with Russia on defence. This cannot be ignored.
Putin only understands the language of force.
Russia’s Hybrid War on NATO’s Eastern Flank Quietly Escalates, is now out at New Eastern Europe
12 June 2025
My new article, Russia’s Hybrid War on NATO’s Eastern Flank Quietly Escalates, is now out at New Eastern Europe.
The article explores how the Kremlin has expanded its hybrid warfare operations across Poland, the Baltic states, and Romania, combining sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation to destabilise NATO’s Eastern Flank. It argues that the West must go beyond resilience and adopt more proactive, coordinated countermeasures to disrupt these campaigns.
GLOBSEC 2025: Interesting session on Towards a European Defence Union: If Not Now, When?
12 June 2025
Interesting session on Towards a European Defence Union: If Not Now, When? with Andrius Kubilius (Commissioner for Defence Industry and Space, European Commission), Hanno Pevkur (Minister of Defence of Estonia), and Sorin-Dan Moldovan (State Secretary and Chief of the Department for Defence Policy, Planning and International Relations, Ministry of Defence of Romania) at GLOBSEC.
The key message is that the EU must urgently scale up defence investment and coordination to respond to the growing security challenge from Russia.
The EU needs serious focus and urgent action on defence procurement integration, joint capabilities development, and ammunition production, in line with the Rearm Europe plan.
The EU must align defence demand across member states in time, quantity, and standards. Inefficient use of production capacity is a major issue that has to be addressed.
Russia now produces as much ammunition in 3 months as all of NATO and the EU do in a year. The EU cannot wait 3 to 5 years to build its capabilities and capacities. EU defence spending must reflect realities on the ground. This is about collective defence and Europe’s security.
Hybrid warfare is also a serious challenge that requires a unified response at the EU level. The Kremlin has been increasingly interfering in democratic processes through hybrid means, particularly in Eastern Europe.
And most importantly, the EU needs to support Ukraine. It should not only back Ukraine’s defence industry but work closely with it, as it presents mutually beneficial opportunities. Ukraine must be included in the Rearm Europe and other defence-related efforts.
Khodorkovsky on Russian Propaganda: Europe Must Build Resilience Beyond Fact-Checking to Combat Sophisticated Disinformation
12 June 2025
Mr Khodorkovsky rightly pointed out at GLOBSEC 2025 that Russian propaganda aims to sow confusion and distrust in democratic processes across Europe. He cited recent interference cases in countries such as Germany and Romania, and also noted how pro-Kremlin narratives are being disseminated through specially crafted accounts designed to achieve strategic objectives.
I believe that as disinformation tactics become more sophisticated, Europe’s response must go beyond fact-checking. We need resilience at every level. From digital platforms to public institutions, EU member states should focus on preventing confusion from becoming paralysis.
How the EU and Ukraine Can Mutually Benefit from the Reconstruction Process is now out at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies
11 June 2025
My new article, How the EU and Ukraine Can Mutually Benefit from the Reconstruction Process, is now out at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.
The article argues that Ukraine’s reconstruction needs in agriculture, industry, and energy are vast but also present significant opportunities for EU–Ukraine cooperation. Targeted investments can enhance EU food and energy security, diversify critical raw material supplies, and support Ukraine’s post-war recovery.
Russian hybrid warfare: Ukraine’s success offers lessons for Europe, is now out at Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert
5 June 2025
My new article, Russian hybrid warfare: Ukraine’s success offers lessons for Europe, is now out at Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert.
In this article, I explore:
• How Russia is escalating sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns across Europe
• Why Ukraine’s decade-long experience countering Russian hybrid threats provides valuable lessons for NATO and the EU
• How Ukraine has built digital resilience and public-private coordination to maintain service continuity, counter disinformation, and protect critical infrastructure
• What the West must do to respond faster, smarter, and more coherently to this growing challenge
Negotiating Under Fire: The Kremlin’s Offensive Diplomacy, adapted for Polish readers by Onet.pl.
2 June 2025
It’s good to see one more of my articles appear in Onet.pl. Negotiating Under Fire: The Kremlin’s Offensive Diplomacy, originally published in Kyiv Post, was recently adapted for Polish readers by Onet.pl.
The article argues that Russia’s return to the negotiating table in Istanbul is not a move toward peace, but a calculated tactic to delay Western aid and justify further military escalation. The Kremlin’s diplomatic gestures reflect an uncompromising and aggressive strategy, highlighting the urgent need for sustained Western support for Ukraine’s defence and long-term security.
Polish adaptation (Onet.pl): https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/przed-rozmowami-pokojowymi-w-stambule-kremla-nie-interesuja-kompromisy/y01hlbf
Kyiv Post (original): https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/53742
UN Confirms Russia’s Drone Strikes on Civilians in Kherson as Crimes Against Humanity — Evidence of a Deliberate Kremlin Tactic Across Ukraine’s Front Lines
2 June 2025
Thanks to Peter Dickinson for highlighting the UN’s finding that Russia’s coordinated drone strikes on civilians in Kherson amount to a crime against humanity: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/un-probe-russias-human-safari-in-ukraine-is-a-crime-against-humanity/
Based on my observations and research, such incidents have been occurring across front-line regions for some time. There have also been multiple cases of Russian FPV drones targeting humanitarian convoys and evacuation vehicles. These attacks have frequently resulted in casualties among volunteers and humanitarian workers in Donetska, Kharkivska, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, and Zaporizka oblasts.
All of this points to a deliberate Kremlin tactic to terrorise civilians, disrupt evacuations, and obstruct humanitarian response efforts in Ukraine.
The scale and persistence of these attacks necessitate continued investigation and a stronger international response.
Negotiating Under Fire: The Kremlin’s Offensive Diplomacy, is now out at Kyiv Post
1 June 2025
My latest article, Negotiating Under Fire: The Kremlin’s Offensive Diplomacy, is now out at Kyiv Post.
In this article, I cover the following:
• How the Kremlin is using the new round of Istanbul talks set for 2 June as a smokescreen to undermine Western support for Ukraine and prolong the war
• How Russia’s “buffer zone” narrative signals deeper territorial ambitions in northeastern Ukraine
• Why the West must view the Kremlin’s diplomatic overtures as part of its broader hybrid strategy, not a genuine move toward peace
• Why sustained Western military aid and EU–Ukraine defence cooperation are essential to prevent further Russian advances
Russia’s War on Ukraine’s Energy Sector Demands a Strategic EU Response, is now out with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
30 May 2025
My latest article, Russia’s War on Ukraine’s Energy Sector Demands a Strategic EU Response, is now out with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI).
In this article, I explore:
• How Russia’s escalating strikes have pushed Ukraine’s energy system to the brink
• How current EU support is falling short of Ukraine’s urgent recovery needs
• Strategic opportunities for the EU to invest in Ukraine’s energy future, including gas, renewables, hydrogen, and grid integration
• What must be done now: close the funding gap, strengthen EU–Ukraine energy ties, and prioritise Ukraine’s recovery as essential to Europe’s energy and security goals
Ukraine’s energy resilience is Europe’s energy security.
Istanbul Deception: Kremlin’s Peace Talks’ Trap – What West Must Do About It, is now out in Kyiv Post
20 May 2025
My latest article, Istanbul Deception: Kremlin’s Peace Talks’ Trap – What West Must Do About It, is now out in Kyiv Post.
In this article, I cover:
• How the Kremlin used the Istanbul talks to issue ultimatums, not seek peace
• Russia’s continued strikes and ramped-up drone and missile production reveal long-term war planning behind its diplomatic facade
• The need for stronger countermeasures against Russian hybrid threats and propaganda in the West that undermine support for Ukraine and weaken Western unity
• What the West must urgently do: accelerate military aid, invest in Ukraine’s defence sector, and raise the costs of aggression for the Kremlin
Great Attending Energy and Security Talks in Budapest
19 May 2025
It is great to be in Budapest for the Budapest Energy and Security Talks.
Key messages from Boris Ruge, NATO Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security, at the Budapest Energy and Security Talks:
• Fundamental NATO recalibration is underway
• Spend more to deter Russia, invest in capabilities and innovation
• Ramp up transatlantic defence production
• Europe and Canada must step up – new defence spending baselines in focus
• A more capable EU is expected and needed
• Momentum must be maintained as threats grow
On Ukraine:
• Allies committed to a just and lasting peace
• Support remains strong – training and equipment efforts continue
• The ball is in Russia’s court to respond seriously
• Russian threats will not disappear after the war
Why Russia’s Military Moves in 2025 Show It Is Not Ready to Stop
14 May 2025
My latest article, Why Russia’s Military Moves in 2025 Show It Is Not Ready to Stop, is now out in New Eastern Europe.
In this piece, I examine:
• Why Russia’s demands and battlefield behaviour signal no genuine interest in peace or negotiations
• Russia’s fast territorial gains since late 2024
• Record-high defence spending and sharply increased production of missiles, drones, and artillery
• Rising conscription and troop deployments
• What we can expect from the Kremlin for the remainder of the year in terms of military advancement
• Why Western leaders must stop reacting to Moscow’s declarations and start responding to its actual moves on the ground
🔗 Read it here
Why the Kremlin’s Peace Narrative Is Strategic Deception translated into Polish by Onet.Pl
12 May 2025
It’s always great to see ideas travel.
My recent article on the Kremlin’s “peace” narrative, originally published in Kyiv Post, was picked up by Onet.pl, one of Poland’s largest media outlets, and adapted for Polish readers.
📰 Polish adaptation (Onet.pl):
Narracja Kremla o pokoju to strategiczna mistyfikacja
🔗 Read it here
It’s rewarding to see analysis reach wider audiences and contribute to deeper understanding of Russia’s strategic narratives.
Why the Kremlin’s Peace Narrative Is Strategic Deception.
12 May 2025
My latest article, Why the Kremlin’s Peace Narrative Is Strategic Deception, was just published in Kyiv Post: https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/52455
In this article, I examine:
• The rise in Russian strikes and civilian casualties in April
• The recurring pattern of escalation after each “ceasefire” declaration
• Why Western responses must focus on actions, not statements
As cities like Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa remain under attack, it’s essential to recognise this for what it is: a calculated strategy to confuse the West and delay military aid to Ukraine. The Kremlin is pushing a peace narrative designed to weaken support for Ukraine and prolong the war on its terms.
The Kremlin Keeps Attacking Ukraine While Pretending It Is Willing to Negotiate.
8 May 2025
According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, April saw the highest number of civilian casualties in Ukraine since September 2024 — with at least 209 civilians killed and 1,146 injured. Nearly all were in Ukraine-controlled areas. Cities like Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, and Kharkiv were systematically targeted.
Since early May, Russian forces have continued striking Ukrainian cities — including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk — killing civilians and damaging homes and critical infrastructure.
These are not peace overtures. This is a deliberate strategy: to mislead the West, disrupt military support to Ukraine, and escalate the war under the guise of negotiations.
🔗 [Read UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, OHCHR]
The Invisible Threat: Why NATO and the EU Aren’t Ready for Fibre-Optic Drones
5 May 2025
Most NATO and EU countries are not equipped to detect or counter fibre optic-controlled drones, a technology now increasingly used by Russia in Ukraine.
Such systems already have a range of 20 to 30 kilometres and are resistant to jamming and electronic disruption. They could potentially be used to disrupt public events or damage critical infrastructure across the EU and NATO territory. In this regard, many government agencies in the West remain poorly equipped to respond to such threats.
This challenge reflects a growing gap in the EU’s and NATO’s civil protection and hybrid security readiness and requires urgent attention.
🔗 [Read The Independent and Militarnyi]
The Kremlin Is Not Interested in Peace: Attacks on Ukraine Are Escalating
30 April 2025
The Kremlin’s behaviour and military spending show it is not ready to stop.
According to the latest SIPRI report, Russia’s military spending surged by 38% in 2024, reaching approximately $149 billion, or about 7.1% of its GDP. In 2025, the Kremlin allocated over $145 billion to national defence, accounting for 32.5% of its total budget expenditure, one of the highest defence spending levels since the Soviet era.
Meanwhile, military spending across Europe rose by 17% to $693 billion in 2024. Ukraine’s defence spending increased by a modest 2.9% compared to 2023, reaching $64.7 billion, or roughly 43% of Russia’s military expenditures.
These numbers indicate that Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation and that sustained military support for Ukraine and Europe’s defence capabilities remains critical.
Russia’s Military Spending Signals a Long War
29 April 2025
The Kremlin’s behaviour and military spending show it is not ready to stop.
According to the latest SIPRI report, Russia’s military spending surged by 38% in 2024, reaching approximately $149 billion, or about 7.1% of its GDP. In 2025, the Kremlin allocated over $145 billion to national defence, accounting for 32.5% of its total budget expenditure, one of the highest defence spending levels since the Soviet era.
Meanwhile, military spending across Europe rose by 17% to $693 billion in 2024. Ukraine’s defence spending increased by a modest 2.9% compared to 2023, reaching $64.7 billion, or roughly 43% of Russia’s military expenditures.
These numbers indicate that Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation and that sustained military support for Ukraine and Europe’s defence capabilities remains critical.
maksymbeznosiuk.com 