This portfolio showcases my strategic policy analysis on Ukraine, Russia, and European security. My recent work includes two major policy reports for the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and over 80 articles published with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Atlantic Council, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), The Jamestown Foundation, GLOBSEC, Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), The Foreign Policy Centre, New Eastern Europe, Visegrad Insight, The Loop (ECPR), NATO Watch, E-International Relations, and Kyiv Post. My analysis focuses on Russia’s evolving military and hybrid strategy, China-Russia cooperation, and EU-Ukraine cooperation.
Reports
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies (2025)
• Securing Europe’s Critical Minerals: Leveraging the EU–Ukraine Partnership Amidst US Competition (June 2025)
Authored a strategic policy report analyzing how the EU can secure vital raw materials by deepening cooperation with Ukraine, in response to the US–Ukraine minerals deal. The paper examines legal, geopolitical, and investment implications, and outlines how EU–Ukraine collaboration on critical minerals can enhance Europe’s industrial resilience while supporting Ukraine’s recovery and EU integration path.
Focus:
• EU–Ukraine partnership on critical raw materials
• Legal, economic, and geopolitical risks of the US–Ukraine minerals deal
• Strengthening EU supply chains and supporting Ukraine’s recovery and integration
• Reconstructing Ukraine: How the EU and Ukraine Can Mutually Benefit (January 2025)
Authored a comprehensive policy paper on Ukraine’s key reconstruction needs, the response to them, and potential ways the EU can contribute to Ukrainian recovery, and how it could be mutually beneficial for both parties.
Focus:
- Reconstruction of energy, housing, and transport infrastructure
- Strategic value of recovery for Ukraine’s EU integration and Europe’s long-term stability
🔗 [Read full report]
• Reconstructing Ukraine: How the EU and Ukraine Can Mutually Benefit – Executive Summary Article (June 2025)
Published in European View, the official journal of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. This article is a condensed version of my full recovery report and outlines how EU–Ukraine cooperation can deliver mutual benefit through strategic investments in energy, housing, and transport.
🔗 Read article in European View (SAGE)
ACAPS – Humanitarian Access & Risk Reports (2024–2025)
Authored reports for ACAPS, including quarterly humanitarian access and risk updates for front-line oblasts, focused on local governance, conflict dynamics, and institutional stress. Reports were published anonymously as part of a collaborative analytical process.
• Ukraine Humanitarian Access Updates – Q1 to Q4 2024
Quarterly flagship reports covering access impediments in Donetska, Kharkivska, and other front-line oblasts.
Focus:
• Conflict dynamics and humanitarian trends
• Access impediments and governance pressure
🔗 [Q1 Report, April 2024] | [Q2 Report, July 2024] | [Q3 Report, October 2024] | [Q4 Report, February 2025]
• Humanitarian Impact of Increased Hostilities in Donetska Oblast (August 2024)
Briefing note analysing the escalation in hostilities and its effect on aid access and local governance in Donetska oblast.
• Impact of Military Mobilisation on Humanitarian Organisations (August 2024 – Internal Report)
This internal report examines how Ukraine’s new Mobilisation Law affects the capacity of humanitarian organisations to operate. It assessed immediate impacts and anticipated future challenges and was shared confidentially with donors and partners to support coordination and workforce planning.
• Humanitarian Implications of Mine Contamination in Ukraine (January 2024 – Thematic Report)
Strategic report examines mine contamination’s impact on humanitarian operations and recovery planning in Ukraine.
🔗 [View report]
Key Articles and Commentary
Royal United Services Institute
• Russia is Losing – Time for Putin’s 2026 Hybrid Escalation (co-authored with William Dixon, December 2025)
The article argues that Russia’s failure to achieve strategic victory has pushed the Kremlin into a phase of hybrid escalation, warning that in 2026 Moscow will intensify sabotage, disinformation, and coercive military signalling to compensate for economic decline and conventional military exhaustion, and that without clear deterrence thresholds and unified resolve, Europe risks encouraging a more dangerous and destabilising Russian strategy.
🔗 [Read article]
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• China is the Weak Link in Europe’s Ukraine Strategy (November 2025)
Examines how China’s deepening partnership with Russia reinforces the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Europe. The article highlights Beijing’s role in supplying dual-use technologies, supporting cyber and disinformation operations, and helping Moscow evade sanctions. It argues that the EU must recognize this coordination as part of a single hybrid threat and respond with unified sanctions, tighter export controls, and stronger strategic resilience.
🔗 [Read article]
Atlantic Council
• Axis of authoritarians poses mounting threat on the global information front (co-authored with William Dixon, November 2025)
Shows how Moscow and Beijing are deepening cooperation in the information sphere, from joint media initiatives and shared “traditional values” messaging to cross-platform amplification on TikTok, Weibo, and other networks. Highlights how Russian and Chinese state media increasingly promote each other’s narratives, blaming the West for the war, undermining sanctions, and targeting European societies with destabilizing content. Warns that this authoritarian alignment poses a tier-one national security threat and urges the West to develop a coherent, collective response.
🔗 [Read article]
🌐 Ukrainian version of this article: Ukrinform / Foreign Ukraines
• Putin is escalating Russia’s hybrid war against Europe. Is Europe ready? (September 2025)
Examines how Russia is escalating its hybrid war against Europe through military drills, airspace provocations, and drone disruptions. Highlights Zapad-2025 exercises simulating nuclear strikes near NATO borders, suspicious drone activity that shut down airports in Denmark and Norway, and incursions into Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace. Warns that drones are now strategic weapons to divide the West, urging Europe to invest in anti-drone defenses, coordinate airspace responses, and draw on Ukraine’s battlefield expertise.
🔗 [Read article]
• Putin’s Hybrid War Against Europe Continues to Escalate (August 2025)
Examines how Russia has intensified its hybrid offensive across Europe through sabotage, cyberattacks, arson, GPS jamming, and undersea infrastructure disruption. Highlights incidents in Poland, the UK, and the Baltic region, showing Moscow’s growing reliance on untrained saboteurs and covert networks after mass spy expulsions. The article warns that fragmented European countermeasures leave the continent vulnerable and calls for a more coordinated, collective response to the Kremlin’s unconventional warfare.
🔗 [Read article]
• Putin is Winning the Drone War as Russia Overwhelms Ukraine’s Defenses (July 2025)
Analyzes Russia’s unprecedented drone bombardments on Ukrainian cities, including the July 4 attack, and how Moscow has overtaken Ukraine in drone production and tactical innovation. The article highlights Russia’s industrial-scale manufacturing, AI upgrades, and evolving swarm tactics, while warning of Ukraine’s shrinking technological edge. It calls for urgent reforms in procurement, scaled-up interceptor drone production, and deeper international co-production partnerships to close the growing gap and prevent a decisive Russian advantage.
🔗 [Read article]
An Italian-language version of this article was published by L’Indro on 9 July, 2025.🔗 Read the Italian version
• Russian Hybrid Warfare: Ukraine’s Success Offers Lessons for Europe (June 2025)
Examines Russia’s expanding hybrid operations across Europe and highlights Ukraine’s decade-long experience countering cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns. It recommends that the EU and NATO adopt Ukraine-inspired models such as decentralized digital volunteer networks and strong public-private partnerships to build more adaptive, coordinated, and resilient defenses against evolving hybrid threats.
🔗 [Read article]
📄 Also published in: Business Ukraine magazine, Summer 2025 (p. 48)
🌐 Ukrainian version of this article: Ukrinform / Foreign Ukraines
An Italian-language version of this article was published by L’Indro on 6 June, 2025. 🔗 Read the Italian version
Center For European Policy Analysis
• Maduro’s Fall: A Warning Shot to Europe (co-authored with William Dixon, January 2026)
Examines how the US intervention in Venezuela signals a tougher, more transactional American approach to power and spheres of influence, and what this shift means for Europe’s security assumptions. Argues that Europe can no longer discount US rhetoric or rely on automatic protection, and must urgently build hard power and take responsibility for its own region.
🔗 [Read article]
• 2026 – Europe’s Year of Living Dangerously (co-authored with William Dixon, December 2025)
The article analyzes how Russia will escalate its hybrid warfare against Europe in 2026 through sabotage, election subversion, and coercive military provocations, exploiting Western divisions and weak deterrence, and argues that only clear red lines and a unified response can stop the Kremlin from widening its shadow war.
🔗 [Read article]
• Russia Marshals its Strength for Zapad-2025 (August 2025)
Analyzes how the Kremlin is using Zapad-2025 to signal readiness for high-intensity conflict and broader confrontation with NATO. The piece examines Russia’s military buildup, forward deployments, and Belarus’s role as a geographic lever. It highlights the threat to NATO’s eastern flank and calls for urgent allied adaptation, enhanced deterrence, and recognition of Zapad-2025 as a strategic warning, not routine posturing.
🔗 [Read article]
The Jamestown Foundation
• Russia Builds Coercive State Apparatus in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories (December 2025)
This article examines how Russia has replicated its federal governance system across Ukraine’s occupied territories since 2022 to institutionalize long-term control. It outlines the creation of Russian courts, security bodies, tax and migration offices, property registries, and social funds, all integrated into federal digital oversight tools. By enforcing Russian laws, re-registering property and businesses, and expanding welfare dependence, the Kremlin seeks to bind the regions to its administrative system and make future reintegration with Ukraine extremely difficult, despite ongoing infrastructure and staffing challenges.
🔗 [Read article]
• Kremlin Builds Patronage Economy in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories (November 2025)
Examines how the Kremlin has turned reconstruction in Ukraine’s occupied territories into a patronage system, enriching elites and consolidating control. The article shows how Marat Khusnullin and state corporations like Rostec profit from opaque contracts and seized assets, turning reconstruction into a tool of corruption and dependency that hinders any future reintegration with Ukraine.
🔗 [Read article]
• Kremlin Expands Youth Indoctrination in Russia and Occupied Territories of Ukraine (Part Two) (September 2025)
Analyzes the Kremlin’s use of youth groups, camps, and cultural institutions to indoctrinate children in Russia and occupied Ukraine. Highlights how Yunarmia, the Movement of the First, and Avangard camps train youth with patriotic rituals, weapons practice, and pro-war activities, while new museums and youth centers spread propaganda. Shows how Moscow bans the Ukrainian language, confiscates textbooks, and forces enrollment in Russian schools and camps, even abducting teenagers for military-style training. Concludes that the Kremlin is building a system to militarize youth, erase Ukrainian identity, and entrench authoritarian control.
🔗 [Read article]
• Kremlin Expands Youth Indoctrination in Russia and Occupied Territories of Ukraine (Part One) (September 2025)
Analyzes the Kremlin’s expansion of patriotic indoctrination in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories. Details massive budget increases, new school subjects blending moral education with wartime propaganda, military training for teenagers, and even ideological lessons in kindergartens. Shows how education, religion, and culture are weaponized to erase Ukrainian identity and raise a militarized generation loyal to Putin’s regime and its war effort.
🔗 [Read article]
• Kremlin Works to Erase Ukrainian Identity and Militarize Occupied Regions (September 2025)
Analyzes how the Kremlin is intensifying efforts to erase Ukrainian identity in occupied territories through language bans, historical revisionism, media control, and coercive passportization. The piece examines how these policies tie residents’ basic rights to loyalty, feed into forced conscription and raids, and militarize abducted children as they come of age. It highlights the use of demographic engineering as a tool of war and frames these measures as a central component of Russia’s long-term occupation strategy.
🔗 [Read article]
GLOBSEC
•Strategic Autonomy Starts in Ukraine: The EU Must Move Faster on Critical Raw Materials (October 2025)
Examines how the EU’s strategic autonomy depends on Ukraine’s critical raw materials and why Brussels must accelerate action after the US-Ukraine minerals deal. Analyzes gaps in the EU’s current approach under the Critical Raw Materials Act, outlines Ukraine’s vast mineral potential, and warns that US priority access could sideline Europe’s interests. Calls for a shift from strategy to delivery through regulatory alignment, sustainable extraction, and integration of Ukraine’s mineral sector into the EU accession framework to secure Europe’s long-term resilience.
🔗 [Read article]
The Foreign Policy Centre
• The Taiwan Trap: Why Beijing Needs Russia’s War in Ukraine (co-authored with William Dixon, January 2026)
Examines why China allows Russia’s war in Ukraine to continue, arguing that Beijing benefits strategically by tying down the West, testing military and sanctions resilience, and advancing its long-term Indo-Pacific and Taiwan ambitions.
🔗 [Read article]
Visegrad Insight
• Kremlin’s Response to Peace Proposals Is the Trap We Must Not Fall For (co-authored with William Dixon, December 2025)
The article argues that Russia is exploiting renewed peace talks as theatre diplomacy to divide Western allies, stall military and financial support for Ukraine, and buy time for a renewed offensive in 2026, warning that without firm red lines, enforceable security guarantees, and sustained unity, the Kremlin’s strategy risks weakening Ukraine and fracturing the West while entrenching Russian gains.
🔗 [Read article]
• Why Ukraine’s Fate May Depend on Beijing (November 2025)
Explores how China has become Russia’s key economic and military lifeline, sustaining Moscow’s war effort through trade, technology transfers, and covert aid. Argues that Western policy must confront Beijing’s enabling role by imposing tougher sanctions, stricter oversight of the yuan, and exclusion from Ukraine’s reconstruction.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was republished by Res Publica Nowa, the flagship journal of the Res Publica Foundation, a leading cultural and political outlet in Poland since 1979.
🔗 Read the Polish version
• The Kremlin Tests Europe’s Defences without Firing a Shot (September 2025)
Explores Russia’s continent-wide hybrid campaign, from GPS jamming and drone incursions to sabotage, cyberattacks, and AI-driven influence. Details attacks across the Nordics, Baltics, Balkans, and Southern Europe, showing how Moscow exploits legal loopholes and infrastructure vulnerabilities. Warns that Europe’s fragmented, reactive defenses leave it exposed, and calls for joint NATO-EU protocols, hybrid fusion centers, and a shift from defensive posture to proactive disruption of Kremlin operations.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was republished by Res Publica Nowa, the flagship journal of the Res Publica Foundation, a leading cultural and political outlet in Poland since 1979.
🔗 Read the Polish version
A full Czech translation of this article was republished in Hospodarske Noviny, a national daily newspaper published in the Czech Republic.
• How the Kremlin Refines Disruption across CEE and the Western Balkans (co-authored with Teodora Tea-Ristevska, July 2025)
Analyzes how the Kremlin is escalating hybrid disruption across Central Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans through tailored playbooks of election interference, sabotage, symbolic politics, and disinformation. The piece examines case studies in Slovakia, Serbia, Moldova, and others to show how Russia adapts its methods to local conditions. It highlights gaps in EU and NATO responses, from weak civic defenses to inconsistent deterrence. The article calls for region-specific countermeasures, stronger democratic resilience, and sustained Western engagement to blunt Russia’s long-term influence.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was republished by Res Publica Nowa, the flagship journal of the Res Publica Foundation, a leading cultural and political outlet in Poland since 1979.
🔗 Read the Polish version
• The Drone War: How Ukraine Can Keep Pace with Russia’s Rapid Escalation (July 2025)
Analyzes how Russia’s mass production of drones is overwhelming Ukrainian defenses and transforming modern warfare. The piece documents Moscow’s explosive growth in drone output, new AI-powered capabilities, and fiber-optic FPV models that evade jamming. It contrasts this with Ukraine’s innovation slowdown, procurement gaps, and production risks under fire. The article offers strategic recommendations for Ukraine and its partners to respond: from scaling low-cost countermeasures to building international co-production networks and using Ukraine as a counter-drone innovation hub.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was republished by Res Publica Nowa, the flagship journal of the Res Publica Foundation, a leading cultural and political outlet in Poland since 1979.
🔗 Read the Polish version
A full Czech translation of this article was republished in Hospodarske Noviny, a national daily newspaper published in the Czech Republic.
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
• A New Axis of Disinformation: What Europe Must Do Now (co-authored with William Dixon, December 2025)
Examines how China’s deepening partnership with Russia strengthens the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Europe. Highlights Beijing’s support for Russian disinformation, cyber espionage, AI-driven influence operations, and space-based intelligence. Shows how Chinese platforms amplify pro-Kremlin narratives, erode European support for Ukraine, and aid election manipulation across the EU. Argues that Europe must treat the Sino-Russian information alliance as a single hybrid threat and respond with unified sanctions, tighter export controls, stronger cognitive resilience, and coordinated EU-NATO red lines.
🔗 [Read article]
• Landmines and Land Use: Unblocking Ukraine’s Rural and Climate Recovery (July 2025)
The article argues that Ukraine’s widespread landmine contamination poses a significant obstacle to rural recovery, agricultural productivity, and climate resilience. It outlines how integrating mine clearance with ecological restoration and EU-aligned land use planning can unlock economic and environmental benefits. The piece highlights opportunities for donor support to combine demining with regenerative agriculture, soil health monitoring, and the development of green infrastructure.
🔗 [Read article]
• How the EU and Ukraine Can Mutually Benefit from the Reconstruction Process (June 2025)
Examines Ukraine’s vast reconstruction needs in agriculture, industry, and energy, highlighting opportunities for EU cooperation. Argues that targeted investments can enhance EU food and energy security, diversify critical raw material supplies, and support Ukraine’s post-war recovery. Highlights key priorities including agricultural modernization, industrial revival focused on critical minerals, energy infrastructure upgrades, and strategic implications of the US–Ukraine minerals deal.
🔗 [Read article]
• Russia’s War on Ukraine’s Energy Sector Demands a Strategic EU Response (May 2025)
Examines Russia’s targeted strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the growing gap between recovery needs and EU support. Argues that the EU must increase investment in Ukraine’s energy system to strengthen both Ukraine’s resilience and Europe’s energy security. Highlights key areas for cooperation, including grid upgrades, gas storage, renewables, and hydrogen.
🔗 [Read article]
Kyiv Post
• A 34-Year-Old Tech Minister Now Runs Ukraine’s War – Here’s Why (co-authored with William Dixon, January 2026)
Explains how the appointment of Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister signals Ukraine’s shift toward tech-driven warfare, institutionalised innovation, and defence-industrial scaling as Kyiv prepares for a prolonged war.
🔗 [Read article]
• Why the War Is Likely to Continue in 2026 (December 2025)
Explains why peace talks are unlikely to end the war in 2026, arguing that the Kremlin is using negotiations to manage Western pressure and buy time while maintaining maximalist territorial demands, rejecting enforceable security guarantees, and preserving escalation options rather than pursuing a genuine settlement.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was published by Onet.pl in December 2025.
🔗 Read the Polish version
• Russia’s War on Ukraine Enters a New Grim Phase (October 2025)
Examines how Russia’s renewed winter campaign marks a shift from energy terror to total infrastructure warfare. The article details Moscow’s systematic attacks on power plants, gas facilities, rail hubs, and repair crews aimed at paralyzing Ukraine’s economy and exhausting public morale. It argues that the coming winter will test whether Ukraine can sustain its resilience faster than Russia can destroy it, and whether Europe can evolve from donor support to full partnership in resilience.
🔗 [Read article]
• Moscow Prepares a Winter of Energy Terror Against Ukraine (September 2025)
Examines how the Kremlin is turning winter into a weapon by combining drone swarms with strikes on thermal plants, gas facilities, and distribution networks. The article argues that Moscow’s goal is not only to damage infrastructure but to undermine public morale and European solidarity, making Ukraine’s resilience and Western support decisive in the months ahead.
🔗 [Read article]
• The Kremlin’s Drone War Has Gone Strategic: Ukraine Must Brace Itself for an Onslaught (August 2025)
Examines how Russia’s drone war has become a state-backed strategic campaign aimed at overwhelming Ukraine’s defenses. The article details Moscow’s investment push, support from Belarus and China, and covert supply chains. It warns of a significant escalation in autumn 2025 and calls for urgent Ukrainian and Western action to scale production, bolster civil protection, and disrupt drone component flows.
🔗 [Read article]
• The Kremlin’s Drone War Is Now a War on Ukraine’s Resilience (July 2025)
Explores how Russia’s record-breaking drone escalation has evolved into a coordinated campaign of hybrid coercion. The article argues that Ukraine must go beyond interception by investing in strategic resilience, civil protection, and defence-industrial capacity. It also urges NATO and the EU to treat Ukraine’s security as their own, warning that the Kremlin’s drone tactics could be exported to destabilize other European states.
🔗 [Read article]
• Russia’s Drones Campaign Part of Its Hybrid Warfare Strategy (June 2025)
Analyzes how Russia’s escalating drone attacks on Ukrainian cities have become a central tool in the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare campaign. The article shows how these strikes target civilian infrastructure to erode public morale and disrupt daily life, supported by rapidly expanding drone production. It calls for both improved Ukrainian air defenses and greater Western support, warning that Russia’s drone tactics threaten not only Ukraine but wider European security.
🔗 [Read article]
• Kremlin’s Hectic Summer Offensive Preparation and Looming Humanitarian Crisis (June 2025)
Analyzes how the Kremlin’s troop buildup and push for a “buffer zone” in northern Ukraine are part of a wider hybrid strategy aimed at displacing civilians and overwhelming local governance. Warns of a potential humanitarian crisis if Western funding and evacuation support fall short.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was published by Onet.pl in June 2025.
🔗 Read the Polish version
• Negotiating Under Fire: The Kremlin’s Offensive Diplomacy (June 2025)
Examines how the Kremlin is using the new round of Istanbul talks as part of a broader hybrid strategy to prolong the war and undermine Western support for Ukraine. Highlights Russia’s territorial aims in northeastern Ukraine and calls for sustained EU–Ukraine defence cooperation to prevent further Russian advances.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was published by Onet.pl in June 2025.
🔗 Read the Polish version
• Istanbul Deception: Kremlin’s Peace Talks’ Trap (May 2025)
Analyzes the Istanbul “peace talks” as a Kremlin smokescreen meant to stall Western aid and shift battlefield momentum. Argues that Western leaders must prioritize sustained military support to Ukraine and counter Russian hybrid threats rather than pursuing futile negotiations.
🔗 [Read article]
• Why the Kremlin’s Peace Narrative Is Strategic Deception (May 2025)
Exposes how Russia’s peace narrative is used to mislead Western leaders, suppress aid to Ukraine, and justify renewed attacks after staged ceasefires. Argues that Moscow’s declarations are part of a war strategy and must be judged by actions on the ground.
🔗 [Read article]
A Polish-language version of this article was published by Onet.pl in May 2025.
🔗Read the Polish version
• Why Ukraine’s War with Russia is Likely to Continue in 2025 (December 2024)
Explains why peace negotiations remain unlikely in 2025, as Ukraine views the war as existential and Russia seeks further territorial gains. Argues that a ceasefire would risk giving the Kremlin time to rebuild and pursue long-term goals, making sustained Western support essential to prevent further escalation.
🔗 [Read article]
• Ukraine Urgently Needs Western Aid to Hold Back Russians (March 2024)
Warns that Ukraine faces battlefield collapse without resumed and increased Western aid, due to severe shortages in ammunition, air defense, and manpower. Argues that Russia’s military buildup and long-term war plans must be met with sustained external support and domestic defense investment to prevent regional destabilization.
🔗 [Read article]
NATO Watch
• Negotiating an End to the Ukraine War: Is it Possible? (co-authored with Dr. Martin A. Smith, January 2025)
Explores how a durable peace agreement might emerge from mutual exhaustion, outlining security, neutrality, and reconstruction frameworks acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia. Proposes EU-led peacekeeping and a multi-level Western guarantee model as alternatives to full NATO membership.
🔗 [Read article]
The Loop, the political science blog of the European Consortium for Political Research
• Joint Ukraine-EU defence is a strategic win for both (June 2025)
Ukraine’s growing defence industry remains underused. This piece argues that EU–Ukraine defence cooperation can boost both Ukraine’s wartime resilience and the EU’s strategic autonomy. Outlines legal alignment, joint production, and supply chain integration as key next steps.
🔗 [Read article]
E-International Relations
• Why Both Ukraine and Russia Need Peace after a Third Summer of War (co-authored with Dr. Martin A. Smith, November 2024)
Examines the shared pressures on both Ukraine and Russia, from manpower and weapons shortages to economic attrition, and argues that a durable negotiated settlement may become the only viable path forward amid mutual exhaustion.
🔗 [Read article]
New Eastern Europe
Kremlin’s drone surge in 2025 and its hybrid threat to Ukraine and Europe (October 2025)
This article examines how Russia’s rapid expansion of drone production has transformed unmanned systems into a core instrument of hybrid warfare against Ukraine and Europe. It explores how Moscow is integrating drones with sabotage, GPS jamming, and disinformation to test NATO’s resilience, while expanding production through coercive labour and industrial self-sufficiency. The piece also highlights new AI-enabled and swarm-capable designs that signal a structural shift in modern warfare. Without stronger counter-drone innovation and coordinated defence-industrial efforts, Europe risks facing the same saturation tactics already seen in Ukraine’s skies.
🔗 [Read article]
Hybrid storm over the North: Russia’s grey zone offensive in the Nordic region (August 2025)
This article examines how Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare in the Nordic and Arctic regions, targeting critical infrastructure, navigation systems and public trust while staying below the threshold of open conflict. It highlights subsea sabotage of cables and pipelines, GPS jamming of flights, exploitation of maritime legal loopholes and disinformation campaigns that now extend into AI platforms. While NATO’s Baltic Sentry programme improves monitoring, legal gaps, weak attribution and limited civil-military coordination continue to leave the region exposed.
🔗 [Read article]
Southern Europe: a Soft Target in Russia’s Expanding Hybrid War (co-authored with Hugo Blewett-Mundy, July 2025)
Examines how Russia is exploiting gaps in resilience across Southern Europe through disinformation, energy pressure, and cultural influence. Highlights vulnerabilities in Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, where hybrid tactics aim to erode democratic cohesion and weaken EU–NATO alignment. Calls for strategic communications units, civic education, and stronger civil society funding to counter the Kremlin’s long-game influence strategy.
🔗 [Read article]
• Russia’s Hybrid War on NATO’s Eastern Flank Quietly Escalates (June 2025)
Argues that Russia’s hybrid attacks on NATO’s Eastern Flank, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and election interference in Poland, the Baltic states, and Romania, reflect a coordinated strategy to undermine Western democracies. Urges NATO and the EU to move beyond passive defence and adopt proactive countermeasures, including sanctions, offensive cyber tools, and strategic messaging.
🔗 [Read article]
• Why Russia’s Military Moves in 2025 Show It’s Not Ready to Stop (May 2025)
Argues that Russia’s military actions in 2025, including expanded troop deployments, record defense spending, and massive increases in missile and drone production, show no genuine interest in peace. Calls on Western leaders to respond to Russian behavior, not rhetoric, and to avoid easing pressure on the Kremlin.
🔗 [Read article]
• The Roots of Russia’s Neo-Eurasianism (February 2017)
Traces the roots of neo-Eurasianism and shows how this ideology, promoted by thinkers like Alexander Dugin, was integrated into Putin’s doctrine to justify Russia’s assertive foreign policy. Explains how neo-Eurasianist ideas underpin efforts like the annexation of Crimea, Eurasian integration, and information warfare targeting the West.
🔗 [Read article]
• Russia’s Information Techniques in Europe: A New Strategy? (December 2016)
Analyzes how Russia has revived and adapted Soviet-era “active measures” to target Ukraine and Western democracies, combining covert disinformation, propaganda, and political influence. Shows how these techniques are used to support pro-Kremlin actors across Europe and destabilize EU and NATO cohesion.
🔗 [Read article]
• Russia’s Military Reform: Adapting to the Realities of Modern Warfare (October 2016)
Examines Russia’s 2008 military reform programme, which replaced outdated Soviet structures with more mobile, better-coordinated forces and introduced rapid deployment units, strategic exercises, and integrated information operations. Shows how these reforms enhanced Russia’s readiness for both conventional and hybrid warfare.
🔗 [Read article]
• Russian Engagement in the Ukraine Crisis: Is it Really Hybrid? (September 2016)
Critically assesses the widespread use of “hybrid warfare” to describe Russia’s actions in Ukraine, arguing that Soviet-inherited practices like active measures and reflexive control offer a more accurate lens. Emphasizes the risks of Western conceptual bias and highlights the unique conditions that enabled Russia’s rapid takeover of Crimea.
🔗 [Read article]
• The Future of Minsk Agreements (January 2016)
Critically evaluates the implementation of the Minsk II Agreement, arguing that Russian-backed separatists systematically obstructed OSCE monitoring, violated ceasefire terms, and manipulated conditions for local elections. Highlights the Kremlin’s use of hybrid tactics to shift responsibility onto Ukraine while avoiding accountability, and warns that Russia seeks to exploit the Donbas as leverage to block Ukraine’s Western integration and push for federalisation on its own terms.
🔗 [Read article]
Georgia Today
• The Soviet Origins of Russia’s Information Warfare (December 2015)
Traces Russian information warfare to Soviet-era KGB doctrines, showing the continuity of psychological influence operations.
🔗 [Read article]
• Emergence of the Neo-Eurasianism Concept (December 2015)
Introduces Neo-Eurasianism as a key ideological tool behind Russia’s post-Soviet imperial revival and foreign policy justification.
🔗 [Read article]
Thai Journal of National Interest
• From Drones to Doctrine: Why Russia’s Air War in Ukraine Is a Warning for Europe (December 2025)
This article examines the transformation of Russia’s use of drones in the war against Ukraine from improvised tactical employment into a formalised military doctrine. It analyzes the growth of Russia’s industrial production capacity, tactical innovations, and integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into hybrid warfare doctrine.
Book Chapter
“Genealogy of the Current Gas Security Situation in the EU–Ukraine–Russia Energy Triangle and the Role of International Law”
in Delivering Energy Law and Policy in the EU and the US: A Reader,
Ed. Raphael J. Heffron & Gavin F.M. Little. Edinburgh University Press, 2016. Chapter 91.
🔗Available here
“Russian Neo-Eurasianism and the Redrawing of Borders in Europe: Case Study of Crimea”
in Visegrad Reader 2015, Visegrad Studies Association / Central European University.
Chapter examining how Russian neo-Eurasianist ideology was used to justify the annexation of Crimea and reshape narratives around European borders.
🔗 Available here
maksymbeznosiuk.com 